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On September 6, the Baltic Sea Comprehensive Freight Index (BDI) soared to 1352 points, a single day increase of 5.71%, which is the highest in 20 months since January 6, 2012. Affected by the continued rise in the BDI index, the A-share shipping sector has also risen collectively in recent days. Industry insiders expect that the BDI index will still have room to rise in the short term.
BDI has a high momentum in the short term
Chief analyst at Haitong Securities in Hong transportation industry in its gold industry report that the recent BDI rise faster, partly because the domestic economy slightly warmer, PMI index return Coorong MA, driven by electricity, coking coal, steel prices rise, stimulated the seaborne trade, the other can still see the shadow of headlands ship was pulled up demand for iron ore, designed to the fourth quarter of FFA delivery. Short-term rentals will be considered headlands ship downside risks, Panama ship will gradually usher in the season, so the market outlook BDI will remain at a certain level, and there are short-term spikes in power.
Yu Chen "My steel net" analyst believes that the current buying activity imported ore prices continue to remain high due to the mining and steel mills replenish inventories had declined to some, but Yu Chen pointed out that "follow-up shipments of mines still We will remain high. " He said the recent Rio Tinto project has started trial operation, which means that subsequent shipments will continue to grow. With the completion of the mine expansion and the arrival of the peak season, the profitability of the Haitang-type vessels will continue, and there will still be some upside in the market in the short term.
Gold Fragrance believes that although the BDI index has a high momentum in the short term, in the medium and long term, the capacity reduction of the bulk market will maintain a relatively fast level under the combined effect of the decline in orders and dismantling, and the greatest uncertainty at the demand side comes from In the medium and long-term adjustment of China's economy, it tends to believe that BDI is expected to gradually climb from the bottom level in the first half of 2013. However, due to the expected long-term investment in China's fixed assets or difficult to maintain high growth rate in the future, the steel industry also has pressure to de-capacity, and then suppress Iron ore imports, so the rebound in the bulk market will be relatively flat.
Analysts pointed out that China's demand is very important for the dry bulk market. In 2013, the domestic economy and its demand for bulk commodities slowed down significantly. In the first half of the year, the total import volume of the largest cargo ore was 5.1%, compared with 2012. In the first half of the year, 9.7% and the annual growth rate of 8.5% slowed down sharply. The second largest cargo coal import was 158 million tons, up 13% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the 30% growth rate in 2012. It is expected to be global in 2013. The growth rate of cargo transportation demand is about 6.7%, and the supply end is slowed down to 5.7% under the influence of the dismantling speed of the old ship. Although the supply and demand difference has eased.
Gold Fragrance believes that the long-term cause of plaguing the shipping industry is a huge stock capacity. The global bulk cargo capacity is about 100 million tons (accounting for 15% of the existing fleet), and the production capacity is degraded and the industry is expected to return to normal profits for 2-3 years. In 2013, the huge losses of shipping companies were inevitable.
Jiang Yingde, an analyst at BOC International Shipping, believes that the shipping industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The demand for dry bulk market is expected to boost BDI in the peak season, while the recovery of container transportation demand is improving. Next year, there will be a small peak season.
Shipping sector collectively rose
Affected by the continuous increase in the BDI index, the A-share shipping sector has risen collectively. On September 6, the A-share shipping index rose 82.71 points, or 6.04%. Since the beginning of August, the A-share shipping index has risen by 27%. China Shipping Container Lines, COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Steamship Co., Ltd. collectively increased daily on the 6th, and China Shipping Development rose 8.57%.
The collective rise of shipping stocks has both factors of rising freight rates and policy factors. The Ministry of Transport issued the "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Shipping Industry's Transformation and Upgrading". On the one hand, the market entry threshold will be increased, and the minimum capacity scale for domestic coastal inter-provincial transport operators will be increased from 2000 tons to 5,000 gross tons, and the minimum transport capacity scale for inland transport operators will be increased accordingly. In addition, the old transport vessels will be eliminated, the capacity of the transport will be reduced, and the policy of continuation of the old transport vessels and the single-shell tankers to be scrapped in advance will be adjusted until the end of 2015.
According to analysts of BOC International, the average P/B ratio of A-shares and H-shares in the shipping sector in 2013 is 1.0 times and 0.8 times respectively, which is at a relatively low level in history. The semi-annual report of the shipping industry shows an industry loss, due to the difficulty in getting rid of the downturn in the shipping market in the short term. The situation, maintaining a cautious attitude towards the sector.
Some analysts believe that the low gross profit margin of the shipping industry has passed. In the future, with the recovery of demand brought about by the global gradual recovery, the international dry bulk shipping and container shipping market is expected to return to normal profitability.