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At the end of last year, many people in the industry predicted that the heavy-duty truck market could recover in 2013. However, in the past three months, the heavy-duty truck market still seems to be experiencing “cold weatherâ€.
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Association) shows that in 2012, the total sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was 636,000 vehicles, down by about 28% year-on-year. The sales of Dongfeng, China National Heavy Duty Truck, FAW, Beiqi Foton, Shaanxi Auto, etc. all fell sharply, with the highest rate of decline exceeding 30%. In 2013, the declining trend in the heavy truck market continued. In the first two months of this year, sales of heavy trucks fell by 29% year-on-year.
While the market continues to slump, the country's heavy truck-type emission standards are still increasing. At the beginning of last year, the “Announcement on the Implementation of National Phase IV Standards for Vehicle Compression Ignition Engines and Vehicle Pollutants†formulated by the Ministry of Environmental Protection (hereinafter referred to as the “Announcementâ€) plans to fully upgrade trucks to the country on July 1 of this year. IV emission standards.
Due to the current use of mechanical pumps for medium- and heavy-duty truck engines that currently comply with the National III standard, after implementing the National IV standard, the cost pressures of switching to electronically controlled fuel injection systems and increasing exhaust after-treatment systems will be faced, so the overall price of heavy trucks will increase. It is a foregone conclusion. In the future, the heavy commercial vehicle market will still be difficult to break ice.
Heavy truck market downturn
According to data from the China Automobile Association, total domestic sales of heavy trucks in 2012 were 636,000 vehicles, down 28% year-on-year from 880,600 vehicles in 2011. The heavy truck market in the first two months of this year saw a year-on-year decline of 29%.
Insiders pointed out that due to the industry’s rising judgment on fixed asset investment this year, it is generally optimistic about the heavy truck market. However, from the current point of view, the recovery of the heavy truck market is not obvious.
In the first quarter of this year, there was no rebound in fixed asset investment. According to institutional statistics, the proportion of investment in fixed assets in February this year has dropped from 22.41% in October last year to 21.18%. In addition, the soaring of oil prices and road and bridge fees have further reduced the revenue of heavy trucks.
A heavy truck dealer in Southwest China admitted to reporters: “The freight rate will not increase, but the oil and toll fees will increase. The heavy truck customers will earn less, the demand for car buyers will drop, and the sales volume will certainly be affected.â€
Yang Zaijun, deputy secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, told reporters that in addition to the above reasons, the control of relevant policies has also made the heavy truck companies' living environment increasingly severe.
In order to cope with the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction, heavy truck companies represented by Shaanxi Auto, FAW Jiefang, Hualing, and Beiqi Foton have increased their investments in natural gas technologies. However, after the Spring Festival last year, news of brewing prices of natural gas was raised in some areas of Changchun and Jiangsu. In this regard, a relevant person in China National Heavy Duty Truck told reporters that "if natural gas prices, will certainly affect the heavy truck industry." Natural gas models are more expensive than the fuel tanker models 50,000 to 80,000, but the advantage is that the cost of use than diesel The car is 30%~40% lower. If natural gas prices rise, the advantages of using cost will also shrink.
The analysis believes that because heavy truck consumer groups value product cost performance, they are particularly sensitive to price increases and usage costs. Yang Zaijun, deputy secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, predicts that the heavy-duty truck market this year will be about 30% lower than last year.
China IV heavy truck price increase
Institutional analysis pointed out that the continuous haze events in various places had led to increasingly stringent emission standards for motor vehicles. The National IV emission standard “implemented on time†was basically established, and the possibility of delaying once again was very small.
A person familiar with the commercial vehicle market told reporters that the upgrade of commercial vehicle emission standards meant that the engines were upgraded synchronously, so the price increase almost matched the upgrade of emission standards.
At present, China's truck manufacturing enterprises, in addition to FAW, Dongfeng, heavy truck, etc. have their own engine business, the other companies basically buy Weichai Power, Cummins and other branded engines.
A survey by the reporter found that for the implementation of the National IV emission standards, several mainstream heavy truck companies are already in place. China National Heavy Duty Truck Group told reporters that the current national IV standard models have been part of the Development and Reform Commission directory, consumers can already buy some cars in the terminal network.
The reporter learned from Dongfeng, Beiqi Foton, China National Heavy Duty Trucks and other dealers that some dealers have obtained price lists for the relevant models of the State IV. Among them, the price of Dongfeng and heavy-duty trucks increased by 15,000 to 20,000 yuan, and part of the models of Beiqi Foton increased the price by about 30,000 yuan.
A heavy truck agent in eastern China told reporters: “On July 1 this year, we are about to start selling the China IV model. Compared to the national III model, the price of the model of the National IV will increase by about 2 million yuan.†At the same time Due to the simultaneous upgrading of technical equipment, the annual after-sale maintenance cost of a heavy truck will also increase by about 5,000 yuan.
It is worth noting that, in the terminal market, the price of the National III model has not been loosened. The reporter integrated the vehicle price information of a number of heavy truck dealers, most of the heavy truck type discount rate is not large, the highest discount rate of about 5,000 yuan.
Although the heavy truck market price is relatively stable, it does not mean that demand has increased. The above-mentioned heavy truck dealers in the southwest region revealed to reporters that in the first two months of the year, more than 70 orders were received, a year-on-year drop of more than 50%.