The singularity of the automotive industry is approaching. Will the traditional car companies be eliminated?

The singularity of the transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry is approaching, and “deep-enjoyment deep car sharing” has become a trend in the future.

1. Breakthroughs in global environmental issues and energy crises, Internet technology and communications technologies, which together contributed to the soaring of salmon

In 1886, the world’s first car was born in the hands of Karl Benz and opened the first year of the car, but it was not until more than two decades later in 1908 that the world’s first mass-produced car, the Model T, was built at the Detroit factory in Henry Ford. line. Mass production has enabled the automotive industry to develop rapidly and the total volume of automobiles has also grown by leaps and bounds.

According to statistics, in 2015, the world's auto production reached 90.786 million vehicles, of which passenger vehicles accounted for about 75%, about 68,085,500 vehicles. With reference to OICA's “2017-2022 China Automotive Market Supply and Demand Forecasting and Investment Strategy Consultation Report”, the world automobile production from 2002 to 2020 is summarized as follows (Source: refer to OICA report, combined with online public data forecast, data deadline 2017.10. 27):

As of the end of 2015, the world’s car ownership has reached 1.2 billion vehicles. With this scale, the world’s vehicle ownership will exceed 1.4 billion by 2020. Of course, serious exhaust emissions and environmental pollution are followed, and the consumption of gasoline and diesel is increasing. Environmental issues and energy crisis have driven the continuous development of the automotive industry to new energy vehicles. Various governments have also issued policies encouraging and supporting new energy vehicles.

On the other hand, after many years of development and progress, Internet technology has made breakthroughs in algorithms and system architecture. At the same time, communication technology is also making rapid progress. After several iterations of communication technology applied in the automotive field, reliability and security have also achieved good results. For example, Telematics communication technology connects the vehicle to the Internet through a wireless network to provide driving for the owner. Various kinds of information necessary for life; for example, short-range communication technology dedicated to American Standard's DSRC (Dedicated Short Range Communication). For another example, LTE-V2X, 3GPP is based on research and development of LTE technology. Datang and Huawei have played a very important role in the formulation process.

If the environmental and energy crisis threatens the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry, Internet technology and communication technology will be the wings for flying, and the automobile industry will bring more room for imagination.

In this context, some people with a sense of smell quickly respond, develop and develop, mobilize resources for integration, and achieve continuous progress and progress in the fields of motorization, networking, intelligence, and sharing of automobiles, just like a squid. The different subdivisions have turned upside down, and they have quickly attracted more approvers and followers to join.

2. Intercepting in-depth car sharing is a disruptive challenge to traditional car companies

The direct result of car networking, intelligence, and sharing is that cars have become a fully-required item for travel. Users are more concerned with travel experiences and feelings. The most extreme sharing state is that people do not need to care about all the tedious operations of the car, such as buying and selling vehicles, maintenance, maintenance, car washing, annual inspections, and refueling. On the other hand, from the perspective of deep sharing and improved utilization, the best car is no longer possessed by individuals (that is, "closed the auspicious"), but rather like a sidewalk in a city, it becomes a completely public utility and is planned uniformly. And management, and planning and co-ordination through unmanned driving to fully meet people's travel needs, increase their utilization, and reduce maintenance and management costs. This state of affairs is "deep-enjoyment deep car sharing" (for more analysis, refer to the 39-page article "Why Do Drivers and Car Sharing Travel Are Inextricably Linked?").

Extensive in-depth car sharing is a better experience for users; for the new unicorns in the automotive and travel sector, it is an opportunity to erode the car giants; for car OEMs, it is Nightmare! Even disastrous! Under the illusion of deeper car sharing, individuals need not purchase cars anymore; the car sharing platform undergoes competition and restructuring and eventually survives only a few exclusive markets; it is even possible that car sharing will be taken by the government as a municipality. Part of the construction and traffic management is unified and integrated planning and management. What the user can directly feel and evaluate is the travel experience. As for the car entity that is provided by someone, Porsche is still the public? It is no longer important. The advantages of the channel are highlighted. The automaker itself is completely in the position of being selected and foundry, and it is controlled by others.

Many forces and capital have entered the auto industry and they have competed against each other.

Nine deaths, but also can not stop the Internet company's massive advance

As mentioned earlier, the sharing of in-depth in-depth car sharing is a trend and is an excellent opportunity for Internet technology companies to erode the automotive sector. However, given the heavy assets of the auto industry, the complex and long supply chain, and the strong technical characteristics, it is not easy for new players to enter. Even so, the new carmakers are still springing up, and they continue to emerge.

Here are a few of the more famous new players in the Internet, as well as the latest developments:

When the Internet forces just entered the automobile industry, it was just like a net explosion, earning the eyeballs of the general public, environmental protection, advanced concepts, and innovative technologies. It also conquered the high-end talents of many traditional car companies. However, with the exposure of LeTV's funding problems and the delay in building a car, the rumbling of doubts, the power of internet car makers has gradually turned from optimistic to slightly ambiguous, and has been dubbed "PTT Builder". The name.

But even so, the internet builders are still in full swing and there is still no trend of decline. Especially in 2017 this year, with the postponement of the double-integration policy, as well as the traditional car companies planning to deploy new energy vehicles and intelligent network-linked vehicles one after another in the next two years, the window of time reserved for Internet-based car-building forces is running out. In order to save the country, it is better to save the country through the curve, or to excuse the birth of a child. We hope to bring the product to the market as soon as possible, and seize market opportunities and preoccupations.

On May 5th this year, at the China Automotive Blue Book Forum, Li Bin explained the pace of application for Qualcomm’s auto qualifications. At the time, Li Bin did not fully apply for qualifications in business logic.

In 2018, all joint ventures will launch new energy vehicles, and the opportunity cost for the next month will be 10 billion yuan. The qualifications must be applied for, but now it is mainly to seize the time window and introduce products to the market as soon as possible. According to the qualification application process, vehicles may be delivered in 2019 for the earliest delivery of vehicles.

It can thus be seen that the urgency of the race at the time, 10 million a month is only the capital level, and the preemptive market share is the key fatal factor for the survival of Internet builders. As follows, the 39-point draught management teased the development of Internet-based carmakers since 2014:

2. Other cross-border forces and capital entry, the automotive industry opened the rookie contest

In addition to the aggressive attacks of Internet companies, other industry sectors are also aiming at the singularity of the transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry and the layout of the automotive industry. They hope to take advantage of this opportunity to break into the dilemma of the automotive industry, which has been deterred for years. Its own business structure seeks new profit growth points.

For example, the topic of the entrepreneurial community is Queen, Iron Maiden Dong Mingzhu, the trend of cross-border car makers is near net red. Although there was a lesson learned from the loss of LeEco, despite the unanimous veto of Gree's directors, Dong Mingzhu repeatedly reiterated his determination to enter the new energy vehicle company Zhuhai Yinlong. By using debt investment, the joint Wang Jianlin and others jointly increased capital of RMB 3 billion to Yinlong. . Dong Mingzhu once said:

Everyone wants to be a peach picker, not a tree-planter. But I personally borrow money to enter Yinlong and hope to plant a tree. We have no reason to say that we have to wait for the project or field to make a profit before going in, but there is no risk to take on the challenge.

Although Dong Mingzhu made a series of twists and turns, new energy vehicles or an important part of Gree's diversification. Gree Electric Appliances has always been in the leading position in the field of air conditioning, but its business structure is too single. Gree Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. has entered a diversified era since last year and has deployed in various fields such as industrial equipment, robots, high-end molds, and mobile phones. It hopes to create new business growth points through a diversification strategy.

There is also a low-key and stable development of cross-border carmakers, that is, this year's new car brand zero-run car. In March this year, the zero-run car brand was officially released in Zhejiang Jinhua, and the manufacturing base in Jinhua was also officially launched. Zero-run auto business covers vehicle design, R&D, smart driving, electrical control, battery system development, and cloud computing-based vehicle networking solutions for new energy vehicles. The first vehicle project will be mass-marketed by the end of 2018. The second vehicle project has completed market research and product definition work. It is expected that the vehicle will begin mass production in the first half of 2019.

The zero-run car is the second venture of Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Dahua is a big company in the field of security video surveillance. It ranks second in the world in the “security industry” and is a technology company with a market value of 10 billion yuan. It is reported that in 2016, Dahua’s share sales reached 13.3 billion yuan, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year, and total profit reached 2.01 billion yuan.

When asked why it was necessary to build a cross-border vehicle, Zhu Jiangming, chairman of the Zero Running Car, stated that there are two main reasons. First, the technical turning point in the automotive industry is approaching and it is the best time for the layout to enter.

To enter new industries, we must seize the turning point of technology. In 2000, Dahua seized the inflection point of digital technology from video tapes to hard disks for video surveillance. Using this opportunity, Dahua entered the security industry from scratch. The turning point in the automotive industry will also come. The electrification and intelligence are the turning points in the automotive industry. I firmly believe that this turning point will come. With the gradual improvement and improvement of technology, user acceptance, and charging facilities, entering now is a very good time.

Another important reason is that a single security industry has limited the company's target growth. Only by opening up the borders and diversifying the industrial structure, can we seek new profit growth points. Zhu Jiangming once said:

Dahua has achieved the goal of 10 billion in sales in 2015. The higher target of the company is from 10 billion to 100 billion. However, the overall global security market cake is 1,000 billion. It is not enough to rely on the original security industry to achieve the goal of 100 billion UOB.

Guardian of century-old cakes, traditional car companies attack force

From the point of view of the industrial revolution, it seems that the revolutionary era of the automotive industry is not far away. For a time, the automobile industry has also become a target of public opinion. All forces and strong capital have entered. The traditional car companies that have been developing for centuries naturally cannot stand still, but must fight to win this "cake battle."

In view of the nature of the auto industry, traditional auto companies still have many advantages in the face of the invasion of foreign forces. For example, it is difficult to build qualified vehicles, for example, mature and improve the supply chain system, for example, strong financial support and so on. What traditional car companies are trying to do is to quickly supplement short boards on the basis of their own advantages, and strongly attack the “invaders”. 39 Dripping water believes that there are mainly three strategies for countering the following.

1. Engagement: throw an olive branch and collect small fresh meat

It is the most direct and most efficient way to directly acquire and annex certain Internet technology companies and car sharing travel platforms. However, if you want to collect small fresh meat under the arm, the cost is very high. And this trick only works for small fresh meat (startup companies, dark horses, newborn unicorns, etc.), and for some eye-catching Internet giants, the price is too high is unlikely.

U.S. car giants are GM’s, rich and wealthy, and have thrown a heavy charge on autopilot technology and shared car platforms. In March of last year, General Motors Group invested $1 billion in acquisition of Cruise Automation's start-up team, Cruise Automation, in order to accelerate the development of General Motors in the field of self-driving car technology with the help of Cruise Automation's experienced software talents and rapid development capabilities.

Just two months before the move, General Motors invested $500 million in Lyft, the second largest U.S.-owned car platform in the United States, and obtained 9% of its equity and a seat on the company's board of directors. It became Lyft through a short-term leasing program. Preferred car supplier.

But even so, with Lyft and Waymo, nuTonomy, Jaguar Land Rover, and GM's biggest rival Ford have established strategic cooperation, taking into account their own development needs, according to the recent news of The Information, GM has begun cooperation with Uber, it is estimated that heavy gold is also indispensable of.

2. Cooperative: handshake giants, fusion technology

Make use of their respective advantages, complement each other, benefit each other, and develop together. For the Internet giant, its huge magnitude can be comparable to car companies, car prices are difficult to swallow, in order to use the Internet giant to master the powerful automated driving, intelligent network technology, sit at the negotiating table, shaking hands and cooperation is the best Strategy.

As follows, 39 drops of water to sort out the cooperation between some traditional car companies and Internet giants:

3. Expand the construction style: build your own, expand development

Layout sharing: Thanks to the strong capital backing of auto companies, it is not so difficult to build and develop their own short boards. Especially for car sharing, although Uber, Lyft, Didi, etc. have seized the market opportunities, but car companies have sufficient vehicle resources, a little capital operation, layout car sharing travel platform still has some opportunities.

For example, GM has built its own Maven car sharing travel platform, BMW's self-built car sharing drive platform DriveNow, Audi's mobile on-demand service products for China's high-end car market, and so on.

Development of electrification: Although there are no advantages for new energy products compared with pure electric players such as Tesla, overall, traditional car companies are still quite ready for electrification. After all, the policy orientation of various countries is always urged, for example, in China, all kinds of new energy subsidies, various unrestricted row restrictions, restrictions on purchasing privilege and so on. From 2019 to 2020, traditional car companies will launch large-scale new energy vehicles. Taking the Volkswagen Group as an example, the public once stated that by the year 2025, 30 new electric vehicles will be introduced. The annual sales of electric vehicles will reach 2 million to 3 million, accounting for 20% to 25% of the total sales.

In addition, some of the traditional car companies have paid more attention to new energy projects and set up new energy auto companies and brands separately, with a view to making progress in new energy. For example, Yundu New Energy Vehicle is a platform of mixed-ownership new energy automobile manufacturers established jointly by Fujian Automotive Industry Group Co., Ltd., etc., with a total investment of 900 million yuan. Cloudy π1 was officially listed on October 10 this year. The following is the degree of cloudiness. Several important development nodes and events for cars:

Optimize its own organizational structure: In addition to this, some car companies have also started to optimize their own organizational structure to respond to the auto industry upgrade and external pressure. It is reported that Daimler Group has planned the most important corporate structural adjustment in the past ten years, split into Mercedes-Benz passenger cars and commercial vehicles, Daimler trucks and buses, and Daimler Financial Services (previously Independent of the three major independent segments, we hope to give greater independence to its passenger and truck business. The aim is to welcome the profound changes brought by new technologies such as autopilot and electric vehicles to the automotive industry.

The impact of the automotive industry transformation is not only on the OEM, but also on the adjustment of its own rhythm and business focus. According to foreign media reports on September 27, Delphi, the world’s largest automotive supplier, has been split into two companies: Delphi and Aptiv. The Power Systems Division became Delphi Technology. The newly formed Aptiv is composed of Delphi's electronic security and e-electrification architecture departments, focusing on auto-driving technology research and development, advanced security systems, next-generation user experience, and connectivity services. On October 24, Delphi also announced the acquisition of nuTonomy, an autonomous driving travel service provider, with an agreed purchase price of US$450 million. This shows Delphi's determination to deploy autonomous driving.

The so-called hero makes time. If the automobile industry is regarded as an ecology, the continuous emergence of advanced technology and technology is like a hero of the tide, and it is driving the auto industry forward. Of course, this kind of advancement may be disruptive in the case of madness.

The other is that the times created heroes, and each of the ages of heroes and heroines was an era of heroes. Faced with the in-depth development of auto production, transformation and upgrading, old clubs and new players are brave and heroic, the battlefield battle, 18 martial arts all played. But in the end who can be invincible, cast a generation of romantic, give time to verify it.