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New York crude oil is a bit surprising. New York oil prices successfully broke the key technical resistance of $53 per barrel on Wednesday, and the bulls will regain their initiative.
Due to the strong demand for refined oil in the summer, refineries need to increase the amount of processing. It is expected that the refinery processing volume in the United States will exceed the average of five years this year, which will cause the decline in crude oil inventories to be greater than in previous years. Among them, the crude oil processing capacity of refineries in June and July this year will exceed 16 million barrels per day on average, and in August an average of more than 15.9 million barrels per day. It can be seen that the trend of crude oil prices in the second half of the year is still full of variables, and the huge open interest actually indicates that the market will still experience huge fluctuations.
Customs data show that in April this year, the total import of fuel oil in Guangdong Province was only 1,395,400 tons, a sharp decrease of 44.22% compared with April of last year. It is clear that high oil prices are the main reason for the drastic reduction in the import of fuel oil. In the case of the power shortage of the fuel power plant in Guangdong this year, there are a large number of power plants that have stopped production and reduced production. In the area of ​​small refineries, the demand for straight-run fuel oil is also weak due to the lack of price increases for non-standard diesel and the continued high prices of imported straight-run fuel oil. It can be seen that the spot price will continue to increase pressure on the current price.
Looking forward to June, the shipment volume of the Huangpu market has increased significantly, and the increase in supply has also provided an opportunity for the drop in oil prices. This week (May 30-June 5th), the total shipment volume of the Huangpu market was about 310,000 tons, while the shipment of Huangpu Port last week was only 180,000 to 190,000 tons, an increase of about 67%. The sharp increase in supply provided conditions for the fall of China's fuel oil prices in June. The futures price also basically converges due to the base difference, and the upward power will be significantly weakened. In the short term, there may be adjustments.
Fuel Oil: Accelerated Rise and Follow Up Accumulated Accumulated Increase 14%
Shanghai fuel oil futures strengthened strongly in the crude oil market. The June, July and August prices hit a new high this year. The July contract has risen for 9 of the 10 trading days since May 20, with a cumulative increase of 14%, and a gain of 6% this week. During the period, the domestic spot price has been at a high of 2800 yuan/ton, and the rise in futures prices has largely benefited from the convergence of the basis, that is, a rapid return to the spot price.