Economic growth slightly falls behind the negative growth of production and sales of automobiles

On June 1st, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data showing that in May China's manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI was 52.0%, down 0.9% from the previous quarter. It shows that China's manufacturing economy is still growing, but its growth rate has slowed down.

The added value of China's manufacturing industry accounts for about 40% of the entire economy. The above-mentioned slowing down of the index has caused the overall economic growth rate to decline slightly. Industrial Bank analyst Lu political commissar judged that the May industrial added value may continue to 13.1% year-on-year, slightly down 0.3 percentage points from April.

The negative growth in the reproduction of automobile production and sales Following the negative growth in the automobile industry last month, the automotive industry again experienced negative growth in May.

Figures released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing show that in May, the production index and new orders index for the transportation equipment manufacturing industry both fell below 40%, and remained above 40% in April.

The negative growth in production and sales of the automotive industry has been shown in some sales markets. According to a report released by the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, in the context of narrow negative passenger car sales growth in April, which was a 13% negative growth in March, the total sales of narrow passenger cars in May reached 850,000 units, which is the same month of the previous month. Declined by 11%, a year-on-year decline of 1% in May last year.

Li Wei, an analyst at the China Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, believes that in April this year, negative growth occurred in automobile production and sales. In addition to the country’s end of the policy on preferential sales of small-displacement vehicles, Beijing’s automobile purchase restriction and restriction policies have played an exemplary role. At the same time, the entire macro economy is not very satisfactory. In particular, the state has increased its tightening efforts and raised the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks, which makes the company's funds relatively tight.

“The large negative growth in automobile production and sales in May was also an adjustment pain that occurred after the growth of the automobile in the past. This pain was the price to be paid in transforming the development mode because the car developed too fast, whether it was road traffic or oil. Supply can't keep up," he said.

While the automobile industry experienced a month-on-month decline in production and sales, the risk of overcapacity was increasing. According to the 12th Five-Year Plan previously disclosed by the auto industry, it is estimated that in 2011 China's auto production and sales volume will reach 20 million, and in 2015 it will reach 25 million. Many auto companies expect that the 2015 automobile production will reach 40 million in 2015. Vehicle.

However, in view of the negative growth in production and sales of automobiles in April, the auto orders index dropped sharply in May, which made it difficult to realize the production and sales plan of 20 million vehicles this year. Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told reporters that the current auto industry is also accelerating investment in order to prepare for the 12th five-year production capacity. However, judging from the current negative growth in production and sales, if there is a potential production capacity of 40 million in the future, and the actual production capacity is only 20 million, “the auto industry will probably have an apparent excess capacity.” He said.

The economic growth rate has dropped slightly. In the negative growth in the production and sales of the auto industry, China's economic growth rate may decline slightly in May.

According to the Industrial Bank’s estimates, the industrial growth in May was more likely to fall from the previous year. The shortage of electricity in some places last month is expected to have an impact on industrial production in May. In May, the industrial added value may continue to fall to the range of 12.8 to 13.4% year-on-year, with a median value of 13.1%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than that of April.

According to figures from the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the manufacturing production index for May was 54.9%, down 0.4% from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, except for the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, the production index of the industries such as textiles, pharmaceutical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, and rubber and plastics products are below the critical point, and the production volume has declined from the previous month.



A person from Nantong Twelfth Cotton Textile Co., Ltd told a reporter that the textile industry has been sluggish so far this year, which is related to high and unstable cotton prices. In February of this year, the price of grade 2 seedless cotton was 33,000 tons/ton, which has now fallen to 26,000 yuan/ton.

Due to the large fluctuations in cotton prices, many companies do not dare to easily enter too many raw materials, and they do not dare to easily access the list. This makes the production situation not very optimistic.

According to figures from the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the new orders index for the textile industry in May was also below 40%. According to the survey, the export order index for the entire manufacturing industry was 51.1%, a slight drop of 0.2% from the previous month.

Wang Qianjin, an analyst at China's No. 1 textile network, told reporters that the current polarization of the textile industry has resulted in good corporate orders and benefits, but some small and medium-sized enterprises have been unable to keep up with many funds due to tight funding. "In addition to the tightening of monetary resources in the country, the labor costs are still rising, and the comprehensive superposition effect has made the textile industry sluggish."

However, despite the large decline in some industry indices, the overall manufacturing purchasing managers index is still above 50%, and the overall macro economy is still good.

Zhang Liqun, researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that following April, the PMI index continued to fall in May, reflecting the possibility of a drop in economic growth. In particular, the purchase price index has decreased significantly, indicating that inflation expectations may change. Inventory activities may increase, which will slow down the economic growth.

“From the demand point of view, although the growth rate of exports and consumption has decreased, investment continues to maintain a relatively high growth, and demand continues to maintain a steady and rapid growth. This is the basic factor that determines the economic growth trend. Therefore, the trend of China’s economic growth will change in the future. Still need to continue to observe." He gave a conclusion.