National Information Center Information Resource Development Department Director Xu Changming
Deputy General Manager of Dongfeng Motor Corporation and Vice President of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd.
Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Company General Manager Tong Dongcheng
General Motors China President Gan Wenwei
President of Delphi Asia Pacific
In 2008, it was a "robbery" for global auto companies. In the international environment of high oil prices and declining consumer demand, the Chinese automobile market has also shown a profit turning point crisis. In response, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, called on the government to introduce relevant policies to limit the production of large-displacement vehicles from the consumer chain to the production chain. This is undoubtedly a bad news for many Chinese and foreign auto companies that rely on large-displacement cars for profit. Then, how do these auto companies look at a series of issues such as oil prices and how will they respond to the challenges of environmental protection and energy conservation? To this end, the Shanghai Securities News held the "2008 China Automotive Industry Development" summit forum.
Dealing with high oil prices
Moderator: Welcome four guests to the scene. Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have continued to rise. How do you think about this issue? In the history of the development of the global automotive industry, there have also been high oil prices or even an oil crisis. What impact has it had on the global auto industry?
Tong Dongcheng:
As we all know, the international oil price has exceeded $140 a barrel. I think that the Chinese auto industry that develops under high oil prices should recognize two indisputable facts. First, we must recognize that the current rise in oil prices is a social existence, that is, based on objective factors. Second, We must take countermeasures, and these response measures are just a prerequisite for ensuring the healthy development of the Chinese auto industry.
If it is to deal with it, as a company, I think there are two responsibilities: The first responsibility is to stretch out through our technological upgrading, to develop more energy-saving emission reduction services and products to meet our The second one is still to seek more alternative energy sources through the upgrading of our enterprise technology, and finding alternative energy sources must also be the responsibility of the whole society, not just a business, a responsibility of a discipline. The responsibility of a comprehensive discipline. Recognizing this point will inevitably require the formation of a corresponding alliance between enterprises and enterprises and the corresponding reorganization of resources. From the inside of the company, this is called a horizontal combination, or a maximum effect.
On the other hand, the state can also consider the current energy situation when formulating laws and regulations. In addition, as consumers, they should rationally look at the current energy issues and the reality of social development, reflect on the high energy-consuming personal consumption habits, and make our life on Earth more prolonged. At the same time, it is also necessary to improve some of the above methods of operating skills and operating techniques to reduce unnecessary energy waste. Not only improve safety, but also improve energy availability.
All in all, from the above perspectives, as companies, they all have their responsibilities, and they have direct and indirect links with every technical point of the company. I believe that although non-renewable energy sources are constantly decreasing, as long as we do well, it is still feasible to extend the period of use.
Xu Changming:
Now the international community has different views on the soaring of oil prices. Some think that the supply is limited, and some think that it is hot money speculation. Specific factors may be many, but in any case, the current price of oil may not be able to maintain in the future. At the same time, in any case, the possibility of returning oil prices to the previous level of $30-40 per barrel is relatively small. Against this background, our company is actually based on the reality of high oil prices to promote the popularity of Chinese automobiles. Therefore, companies must make their own choices, and consumers must also consider the reality of high oil prices to make a decision to buy a car. Only in this way can we ensure the sustainable development of China's auto industry.
Chunsawa:
I have personally experienced the impact of oil price changes on the automotive industry. I am a Korean. When I went to the United States in 1971, I had 30 cents a gallon of oil, and now the U.S. oil price is 4 US dollars per gallon, which is almost 13 times more. The sharp rise in oil prices has had a great impact on the global automotive industry, especially the American automobile company.
In the early 1970s, some Japanese auto companies entered the American market. In 1976, when I worked for General Motors, American companies did not regard Japanese companies as rivals. At that time, Japanese companies produced small-displacement cars. At that time, Americans did not like to drive cars. However, the oil crisis has changed all this. Whenever there is an oil crisis, the Japanese automaker’s share in the US market will increase, while the share of US automakers will decline. From this point, we can clearly see that the market's preference for carts or carts is closely related to the price of oil. In the past, people bought cars because the car's fuel economy was relatively better or it was more fuel efficient. This is also the reason I have been asking Delphi to produce parts for small cars during my 7 years as president of Delphi’s Asia Pacific region. Moreover, Asian companies already have a lot of expertise in the production of small cars, especially those in Japan and South Korea. Nowadays, there is also a tendency to pay attention to the car in the Indian market. Tata India has announced the production of a small car priced at $2,500.
In addition to paying attention to small cars, another measure to deal with oil prices is upgrading technology. Compared with 1971, automotive technology has grown dramatically. Delphi is committed to researching hybrid vehicles. I personally prefer the future of hybrid vehicles in the automotive industry in the future. Of course, we are also very concerned about biofuel technologies such as ethanol. Delphi has provided global components for biofuels.
All in all, the current status of high oil prices may make us pay more attention to the car, but at the same time, we also need to invest more in the development of other related technologies.
Gan Wenwei:
As the last speaker in the guest, it is obviously very challenging. Some of the content that I want to say has already been covered by the previous guests. As a member of the automotive industry, we must face the current situation of high oil prices, and we must also face and solve the automotive industry may affect the environment. However, I do not think that there is a panacea that can solve all the problems we face. We may need to use different methods to solve the problems.
For environmental protection, we must ensure the use of the most advanced technologies to improve fuel quality and improve the quality of engine management. This will help reduce the pollution caused by vehicle exhaust emissions. In fact, we have already applied many technologies to the vehicles that are currently being launched. We must ensure the continuous development and updating of technologies in the future.
At the same time, we can start from two perspectives on the difficulty of rising oil prices. First, by developing alternative energy sources and reducing dependence on oil, such as biofuels, natural gas, etc., they can be used as a supplement to engine fuel. Second, it can continuously improve or improve fuel economy.
Why the Chinese and foreign markets perform differently under high oil prices
Moderator: We have noticed that there has been a phenomenon opposite to the international market in the Chinese market. In other words, global oil prices have risen, and small-displacement vehicles in the developed countries have been selling well. However, China's small-displacement vehicles have not sold well, and high-fuel-consuming vehicles such as SUVs have sold better. Why is there such a contrast? In addition, can you support the automotive companies or related regulatory agencies?
Tong Dongcheng:
Everyone thinks that there are more rich people in the country now, and they hope to show off their wealth by purchasing large-displacement cars. However, this is not comprehensive, and some people do have needs; but some people also use the large-displacement vehicles to display their identity because of their misgivings. Aware of this problem, our consumers will gradually become sensible. I believe that with oil prices rising and consumers becoming more sensible, small-displacement vehicles certainly will have a stage of development and improvement. This trend will not change.
Xu Changming:
Although the world faces high oil prices, it cannot be called high oil prices in China. China's oil prices are very cheap, if not the cheapest in the world. If China's oil prices rise up to a certain extent, the market for large-displacement vehicles will be affected. I believe that China will introduce a corresponding policy, and the proportion of large-displacement, high-fuel-consuming vehicles will drop in the future. If China's auto industry wants to achieve sustainable development, it must realize modernization. To achieve a well-to-do society, we must let the people have a car, but all of them are definitely unbearable. In Japan, there is a large gap between the consumption of carts and trolleys. The minimum maintenance fee for one-year vehicles is 10,000 yen, and the maximum one-year maintenance fee is 70,000 yen.
We are also calling for and researching. Next, I propose to adjust policies so that consumers who use large-displacement vehicles pay a higher price. At the same time, the company's production must also be restricted. It is time for a comprehensive policy to be introduced.
Tong Dongcheng:
Commercial vehicles and cars are not the same! Therefore, when formulating policies, they must be separated.
Chunsawa:
Another cause of this phenomenon is the growth of the middle class. As China's middle class grows, with their large-scale addition to the car industry, China's small-displacement car market will change, or it will welcome small cars as much as India does now.
Looking at the past, China has not completely prepared for the car from production to the consumer market. This is completely different from India. Although looking at the entire automotive market and automotive technology, India may be 10 years behind China. Indians basically bought motorcycles when they had no money; when they had money, they started buying some cars. Because of this, India wants to produce a car that sells for $2,500, although outsiders think it is impossible. However, India basically rebuilt the entire car manufacturing process and even innovated the supply chain.
When the Chinese auto market first started and opened up, it was the first to sell carts, and the people who bought cars were mostly wealthy people and government departments. So from the beginning, China has not introduced or valued the car. Now that the middle class in China wants to buy a car, many Delphi employees aged 30 to 35 want to buy a car, but they don’t have much money. After seeing the oil price rise, they don’t even want a car. However, over time, as China’s middle class wealth grows, they may also be able to buy from cheaper cars just like India.
Gan Wenwei:
In fact, the Chinese who are already concerned about the car have started to increase because 80% of the cars we sell in China are four-cylinder cars. As more and more private users purchase cars, they will pay more attention to prices and fuel economy. With the rise in oil prices, this trend will develop more rapidly.
However, we believe that fuel economy is not a patent for small cars. By upgrading technology, medium-sized or large-sized cars may not be very fuel efficient. Therefore, in the future we may have various solutions to improve the fuel economy of various models.
Weapons promote the long-term development of the automotive industry
Moderator: China formally proposed the construction of an environment-friendly society and a resource-saving society. Regardless of the link between production and consumption, the automobile industry is an industry with high energy consumption and resource consumption. How can auto companies take up their social responsibilities and make the auto industry maintain sustainable development for a long time?
Gan Wenwei:
All of us have such social responsibilities. General Motors has already tackled this issue in several ways. First of all, we will work with Chinese universities and related government departments to find different alternative energy solutions. Second, we will invest a lot of money and resources in research and development in China, so that the latest technology developed by GM in the world can be applied to the Chinese market faster. Third, there are actually many related technical solutions that are already mature, but they may be more expensive for consumers. Therefore, we hope to work with the government to find the most appropriate solution, and ultimately accelerate the development of the automotive industry. For example, support in terms of technology, infrastructure, etc. If we can do the above-mentioned work well, my colleagues in the automotive industry will work together and work together. The automotive industry will certainly achieve sustainable development in the future, and it will enable our next generation to enjoy more free and smooth traffic.
From GM itself, we have done some specific work. First, to improve the efficiency of engine combustion, Delphi and other companies also provide good technology. Second, we will make some additions based on the traditional engine combustion technology. By 2010, GM will develop hybrid vehicles. In the next few months, we will launch a Buick hybrid on a large scale in China.
Chunsawa:
Delphi is a technology-oriented company with a great deal of technology to solve vehicle emissions and environmental issues. In the MIT election, Delphi received the highest technology award in the world.
Our technologies, especially electronic systems, are globally leading and electronic systems are well positioned to protect the environment, including engine management, exhaust emissions, and more. Delphi's engine control management system is also quite advanced in the world. Many companies are very interested in this technology and hope to improve the environmental protection of traditional engines. In addition, we also have a strong diesel supply system technology. Many people have some misunderstandings about diesel engines. The realization of diesel engines is no worse than that of gasoline engines in terms of vibration or emissions. In the European market, the share of diesel engines exceeds 50%.
In addition, Delphi has spent more than 20 years studying hybrid technology, now has more mature hybrid engine technology, and has provided Ford with a lot of this technology. Delphi is also very concerned about the development of technologies in the field of biofuels.
Tong Dongcheng:
Responding to the country's call to establish a resource-saving society is our responsibility. Dongfeng has its own advantages in the automotive industry. Some data can illustrate this point: In terms of our investment in technology development, 40% of our funds are spent on new energy and emission control; 30% of our investment in manufacturing is spent on resource utilization and environmental governance. . What are the results of these two sets of data? So far, Dongfeng's products have fully complied with national emission regulations in the environmental field. Moreover, we have enough technology reserves for the development of the fourth-generation cars in the future.
In terms of alternative energy sources, our hybrid vehicles have been fully operational on five bus lines in Wuhan. In the field of electric vehicles, our research has been deep in the country. In the national "863" program, Dongfeng has undertaken a large number of tasks.
In the field of manufacturing, the funds we invest in the use of new materials each year account for about 10% of the cost of technology development. The use of new materials is, to a large extent, to deal with resource issues and environmental issues.
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