The fan "bad money" living soil

The fan kilowatts cost advances into the "3000 yuan era", what will this bring to the original new energy industry with unlimited scenery?

A year ago, the price of wind turbines was fully compressed to RMB 5,000/kWh. At that time, based on comprehensive technological advancement, increase in stand-alone capacity of turbines, and profitability of wind turbines, the industry generally judged that there was still a lot of room for the decline in wind turbine prices. This kind of judgment has a certain degree of optimism. From the perspective of industrial growth, the fanciful and orderly decline in the prices of wind turbines is the most direct and positive, and it is the space that squeezes hot money speculation. The price leverage under the market law is also the key driving force for this sunrise industry to mature.

But in the past year alone, this widespread optimism has disappeared. Instead, it is the industry's growing uncertainty and panic. In October last year, in the bidding of 1.5MW wind turbines for the two projects in Zhangjiakou and Hami, Goldwind broke down the safety bottom line of the industry by RMB 4000/kW. Recently, a wind turbine company broke 3400 in a tender. RMB/kw of “cabbage price” has thus completely disrupted the industry’s defensive positions.

Judging from the movement of dozens of machine-manufacturing companies active in the domestic market, competing to cut prices does not seem to stop. In the coming period of time, it will not be impossible to bid for a large area of ​​3000-3500 yuan.

There is a well-known law in economics called the law of “bad money drives out good money”. The general idea is that in the same market, goods of different values ​​are sold at different prices. Over time, high-value goods cannot be withdrawn without a reasonable return. However, low-value goods will be popular; eventually fake and shoddy products will prevail and the normal business environment will be destroyed.

Judging from normal market behavior, benign price cuts are an effective means of market self-purity. However, like the wind turbine industry, in the short period of one or two years, the bid price has been cut off. This is extremely rare in the industrial history of China and the world. In fact, the vigorous development of the fan industry during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period is entering the dangerous situation of the “self-destruction of the Great Wall”.

Based on the analysis of bidding and bidding items that are constantly updated at low prices, there are two major types of companies that are worthy of attention. As the main force of price reduction, they not only repeatedly create irrational price reduction incidents, but also respond to long or short supporting measures to maximize the immediate benefits after price reduction.

The first type of price-cutting companies are those who have already approached the edge of the market. Their behavior is not difficult to understand. This type of shop is similar to a poorly-operated one. Only by taking a pounding off the wrist before leaving the market can the loss be reduced as much as possible.

However, in this large and small group of nearly 100 companies, most companies did not have sufficient arguments and clear judgments before starting work. More importantly, these investors are often born with defects in manufacturing, design, and key technology developments that form the cornerstone of the industry. Therefore, after passing through the short-lived honeymoon of the wind power market, such enterprises have to prepare or have already bid farewell to the market. Before they left, it was exten- sive to face the price cuts and blood stasis that had been invested in the huge investment. But in the industry chain caused a modest butterfly effect - because most of the losers are component manufacturers, their chain-like price cuts in all parts and components, contributed to the industry's big sales.

The second type of price-cutting companies are industry leaders that occupy high market positions and have completed financing. In the same way, their behavior is not hard to understand. When the industry has entered the period of adjustment and shock, facing a total reshuffle at the moment, these leading companies hope that through a simple and brutal price war, one can clear the market order, completely get rid of the second-line catchers, thus completing the finalization of the industry structure.

Judging from the staged tasks of the company's business strategy, all companies with aspirations and ambitions cannot and cannot resist the temptation to consolidate their position and take advantage of tyrants in the face of industrial transformation. There are about six to seven complete machine manufacturers and key component manufacturers. Their common characteristics are extremely clear - they have a large market share in China and even in the world, and the scaled design and manufacturing capabilities are initially protected. The key is that they have basically completed the connection with the capital market.

The market economy is an efficient resource allocation method, but it is not a perfect system. Changing the "bad money to expel good money" in the wind power industry, requires manufacturers, power generation operators and the government to participate in and boycott, to better make the market an orderly and efficient operation. Only in this way can we maintain a healthy and energetic wind power market that was originally sunny.