Phosphorus is unusually strong in abundance

According to the previous yellow phosphorus market conditions, each year after entering the end of April, due to the main yellow phosphorus production areas in Yunnan, Guizhou and other places will soon enter the wet season, the output is expected to increase, the market price tends to gradually decline. However, since the beginning of this year to mid-May, the market price of yellow phosphorus has been abnormally strong, and has remained stable at 16,500 yuan (t price, the same below). The reason for this is due to the support of various factors such as the stability of downstream demand, changing power policies, and rising logistics costs.

Downstream demand tends to stabilize

According to analysis by industry insiders, after the international financial crisis, the atmosphere of impetuousness and speculation in the circulation sector has dimmed, and the direction of product orientation has become a direct terminal trend, that is, the market is increasingly able to reflect actual demand conditions. From the relevant data, the market demand for yellow phosphorus and its downstream phosphate products has stabilized. In overseas markets, Algeria's current annual phosphate production capacity has exceeded 25, due to the fact that the national tariff policy does not encourage the export of large quantities of phosphorus products, and that the countries with phosphorus resources in the Middle East have risen rapidly. For example, Tunisia has already formed 150,000 tons/year phosphate production capacity. The ten-thousand-ton mark has caused China's annual export of phosphate products from the 600,000 tons in the early years to the current 400,000 tons. In the domestic market, phosphate products are mainly used in ceramics, electroplating and other fields, and a few species have grown. For example, with the widening of the scope of food additive use, food grade phosphates in meat products, aquatic products, dairy products, soy products, flour products In processing industries, there is a slight increase in the annual usage.

In addition, yellow phosphorus, as the parent material of organophosphorus pesticides, consumes about 100,000 tons of yellow phosphorus each year due to the processing of pesticide intermediates such as phosphorus trichloride. At present, the glyphosate industry, which has entered the doldrums with the international financial crisis, has gone through the peaks and troughs of roller coasters after the price peaks, and has washed away the false market components and restored the true supply-demand relationship. According to production companies' forecasts, the price of glyphosate will be within the year. With some recovery, the demand for yellow phosphorus will remain stable and increase.

Electricity price increase is expected to increase

Yellow phosphorus is a high-energy-consuming product. The unit product consumes electricity as high as 15,000 kilowatt-hours and the electricity cost accounts for more than 65% of the yellow phosphorus production cost. Obviously, this cost structure is very sensitive to the increase in electricity prices. The National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariffs of 16 provinces, municipalities and districts across the country on April 10, and raised the on-grid tariff by an average of 1.2 cents/kWh. Although the price adjustment only increased the on-grid tariffs of the thermal power companies, the terminal sales price did not link temporarily, but industry players generally believed that industrial power accounts for more than 70% of the total electricity consumption in the society. The capacity of the power grid companies is limited, and the on-grid tariffs are increased. Adjustment of industrial electricity prices is only a matter of time. For this reason, with this expected increase in electricity prices, manufacturers are not in a hurry to ship yellow phosphorus stocks, and the circulation is also optimistic about this price increase, and the willingness to sell is not strong, which makes the market supply stable, yellow phosphorus The price is strong.

At the same time, new policies for local electricity prices have also been introduced. In general, after the middle of May each year, Yunnan and Guizhou will implement the Fengshui electricity price, but in recent news, Guizhou has reported that the province will still implement this year or during the Fengshui period. Flat water price. How does the regional price gap affect the yellow phosphorus market? Sun Kai, the general manager of Jiangsu Huanglong Chemical Co., Ltd., the country's largest yellow phosphorus distributor, told reporters: “If Yunnan, Guizhou, the two largest domestic producers of yellow phosphorus perform different industrial electricity prices, in addition to enhancing the yellow phosphorus in Yunnan In addition to the dominant market position and weakening the market competitiveness of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou, there is also an important role to raise the overall bottom price of yellow phosphorus.” Sun Kai analysis believes that the two kinds of electricity prices will cause a difference of 1,500 yuan in the manufacturing cost of yellow phosphorus. With the support of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou, it is possible to effectively block the space for yellow phosphorus prices in the wet period.

Logistics costs rise too fast

Recently, the data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that China's logistics costs account for more than 18% of GDP. Similarly, yellow phosphorus is also plagued by high logistics costs. In recent years, due to a number of fire accidents in the process of railroad transportation of yellow phosphorus in barrels, Yunnan Railway no longer assumes the barrel yellow phosphorus transportation business from the New Year's Day this year. It is still in a state of shutdown. Therefore, the export of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan will be converted into road transport, and with the gradual rise in domestic fuel prices, road transport prices have soared, rising logistics costs naturally raise the price of yellow phosphorus. It is understood that in order to restore the Yellow Phosphorus rail transport, relevant agencies in Yunnan are in consultation. According to another rumor, the railway authorities demanded that the thickness of the yellow phosphorus drum be increased from 1.2 mm to 1.4 mm, and that the load of each wagon should be reduced from the original 48 to 50 tons to 40 tons. Once this situation is true and implemented, the logistics costs of yellow phosphorus will increase by nearly one hundred yuan. This is also one of the factors supporting the firmness of yellow phosphorus prices.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, phosphate ore has risen by more than RMB 30-50, and the consumption of 10 tons of phosphorus ore per 1 ton of yellow phosphorus has been calculated. The cost of its production will increase by 300 to 500 yuan. At the same time, labor costs have risen at a faster rate in recent years. However, due to the general under-employment of yellow phosphorus companies, the output is relatively small, and the ability to apportion wages and surcharges per unit of product decreases. This has a significant effect on pushing up manufacturing costs. From this we can see that the overall cost factor has risen in an all-round way, which has strengthened the supporting role of yellow phosphorus prices.

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