Second quarter 2010 parts orders will slow down

In the first two months of 2010, the sales of cards and passenger cars in China ushered in a good start, directly stimulating the growth of sales of related parts and components companies. In an interview, the reporter found that although most parts and components companies are optimistic about the prospects of the domestic commercial vehicle market in 2010, no one company has dared to assert that the prevailing commercial vehicle sales in the first two months of 2010 will continue into the end of the year. Whether the commercial vehicle market will turn around this year and when this turning point is about to come will be highly concerned by some parts and components companies that mainly supply commercial vehicles.

January and February sales soared

From January to February of 2010, China's auto production and sales volume grew rapidly, benefiting from the fact that China's economy has continued to improve, and that the policies concerning automobile investment in the countryside and the 4 trillion yuan investment plan have remained stable. The hot sales of the entire vehicle led to the sales of parts and components. In particular, the market demand for commercial vehicle parts and components was strong. From the brake valves and piston rings and other key components to key components such as engines and transmissions, the sales situation of related parts and components companies was very gratifying.

According to Yu Yufeng, Propaganda Department Director of Shaanxi Fast Automotive Transmission Group Co., Ltd., in January 2010, the company sold a total of 80037 transmissions of various types, an increase of 645% from the same period last year; in spite of a slight Spring Festival holiday in February, the sales volume still exceeded 80,000 units. Previously, Fast had only 60,000 sales records for a single month, and sold more than 80,000 units in the first two months of 2010. This is unprecedented in Fast's history.

Similar to the situation of Fast, there are card and bus brake valve manufacturers in Chongqing Kafu Automobile Brake Steering System Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Keyi Auto Accessories Co., Ltd. According to a person from the Chongqing Kafu Marketing Department, the company's orders were rushed in the first two months of 2010. Currently, all departments are in an overloaded state. Zhang Lijun, chairman of Zhejiang Keli, told reporters that in order to increase production capacity, the company is planning to expand the plant and expand production capacity. According to industry insiders, the above two companies account for a large share of the domestic commercial vehicle brake valve market, which can reflect the situation of the entire industry to some extent.

However, in the face of the ever-changing production and sales records, the parts and components companies are not blindly optimistic, and even feel a bit worried. "If the sales in January and February of this year continue until the end of the year, this year, sales of Fast will reach nearly 1 million units, compared with 540,000 last year." A person from the Fast Market Department told the reporter that for Fast. In fact, achieving year-on-year sales growth of 100% year-on-year is somewhat unrealistic. A person from Chongqing Kafu Marketing Department told the reporter that in January and February of 2010, the sales volume of the company was significantly higher than the same period of previous years, which was far beyond expectation. This is not quite normal.

March and April orders slowed

In the survey, the reporter found that compared with the same period in 2009, the number of orders for most parts and components companies in March and April 2010 was still growing, but compared with January and February 2010, the increase in the number of orders for some companies began to increase. slow.

“The number of orders from the matching market in March and April has obviously dropped, which is equivalent to 80% of orders in January and February.” Zhang Fengying, deputy general manager of Nanjing Feiyan Piston Ring Co., Ltd., told reporters. Jia Qiang, Marketing Manager of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. Datong Gear Co., Ltd., said that the number of orders for the company in January and February 2010 increased by approximately three to four times compared with the same period of last year, but it was difficult to increase orders by one year from March to April. February level.

The above phenomenon has been highly valued by some parts and components companies, but they have not linked the slowdown in growth rate with the inflection point of the commercial vehicle market. “Before the Spring Festival, people are generally optimistic about the domestic commercial vehicle market. Auto manufacturers and distributors are actively stocking the goods, causing the supply of commercial vehicles in January and February to be in short supply.” Zhang Fengying told reporters that after the Spring Festival, the national macroeconomic policy became clearer The macroeconomic situation has remained stable, and people have gradually changed their buying attitude. He believes that this phenomenon is normal and does not mean that the market has experienced large fluctuations.

Zhang Fengying’s point of view was recognized by Jia Qiang. He believes that due to the hard-to-find phenomenon that occurred in 2009, dealerships were mostly stocked at the beginning of 2010, leading to the peak sales of commercial vehicles from March to April to January and February, and the number of orders for parts and components companies growing naturally. It will show highs and lows.

There may be a turning point in the second half of the year

At present, most parts and components companies believe that the commercial vehicle market in the first half of 2010 will continue its growth momentum in 2009, but there are some concerns about the market situation in the second half of the year. Zhang Fengying believes that the complex and constrained factors facing China's economic development and the advance consumption of the commercial vehicle market in the first half of 2010 may lead to a turning point in the commercial vehicle market in the second half of the year, which will in turn lead to a decline in orders for some parts and components companies.

Jia Qiang told reporters that if China's GDP keeps growing steadily in 2010, the 4 trillion yuan investment plan will steadily advance. Along with the improvement of the export market, the domestic commercial vehicle market is unlikely to rise and fall in the second half of the year. However, he believes that the commercial vehicle market will gradually return to normal in the second half of the year and will not be as hot as it was in the first half of the year.

In addition, some analysts believe that due to the lack of a unified model of the Chinese market, and too many disturbing factors, it is difficult to accurately predict the situation of the commercial vehicle market in the second half. The person reminded that no matter whether there will be a turning point in the market at all, the parts and components companies should adjust their production capacity appropriately in the second half of the year to avoid blind expansion.

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