Application Prospects of Four Types of Automatic Transmissions

Figure 1: AMT market size (in thousands) and market share forecast in China

AMT will not be a mainstream solution either now or in the future:

Due to poor ride comfort, the application of AMT is mainly limited to A-class and B-class vehicles; on the other hand, its cost advantage may be weakened due to the sensitive price of A- and B-class target customers. However, for commercial vehicles with fuel efficiency and low cost as the primary objectives, AMT is relatively more likely.

In the short or medium term, planetary gear automatic boxes will still be mainstream products

Figure 2: Forecast of market size (unit: thousands) of planetary gear transmission (AT) in China and market share forecast

Source: IHS Global Insight

For historical reasons, planetary gear transmissions (so-called "AT") are the mainstream of automatic transmissions. However, its development prospects are uncertain, mainly because:

- From the competition of CVT and DCT technology.

- Joint venture brands enter low-end product lines based on manual transmissions

The development of CVT is limited

Figure 3: Market Size (Unit: Thousand Vehicles) and Market Share Forecast of CVT in China

Source: IHS Global Insight

The development of CVT is mainly limited, in addition to its own torque capability, it is also subject to its limited market supply. For example, the core components in the CVT are only a few suppliers such as Bosch.

In addition, CVT is mainly used in engines of up to 2 liters.

DCT has great potential

Figure 4: Market Size of DCT in China (Units: Thousand Vehicles) and Market Share Forecast

Source: IHS Global Insight

Figure 5: Forecast of DCT's application prospects at all levels of car market and MPV and SUV markets in China

Source: IHS Global Insight

DCT has advantages in technology and supply, and its greatest potential comes from its broad application prospects. It can be used for all levels of cars, as well as SUV, MPV.