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In 2004, the auto market price system was in disarray. This year, all manufacturers will make corresponding adjustments based on last year's market conditions. It is expected that due to heavy inventory pressure in the first half of the year, the auto market price cut will continue, while the price reduction in the second half of the year will be concentrated on models with more than 200,000 yuan. At the same time, with the introduction of various favorable policies, the auto market is expected to pick up.
Zhang Xiaoyu, vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, said that after continuous price reductions last year, the price of 100,000 to 150,000 yuan this year will remain generally stable. The reason is that there is no room for price reduction. What is corroborated by Zhang Xiaoxuan's argument is that people in Shanghai Volkswagen have said that the price of POLO is not only in line with international standards, but even lower than international prices. A number of manufacturers complained that the profits of vehicles under 150,000 were meagre and could only be maintained.
In spite of this, according to various aspects, even if the price of 100,000 to 150,000 yuan can be stabilized, I am afraid it will also be in the second half of the year. The first half cannot be expected. Because last year's inventory was huge, it took time to digest it. At present, the exact inventory, including the number of dealers in the hands of the dealer seems to have become a mystery, but it is estimated that when more than 500,000 vehicles. The only way to clean up these stocks is probably to cut prices, and it is more drastic price cuts.
For dealers, due to the pressure on a large number of stocks, while bank credit tightened, in order to quickly turn around the funds, they must throw out the inventory, otherwise I am afraid that even maintenance will become a problem. The manufacturers can do nothing but acquiesce. Because, the dealer's stock is originally the result that the manufacturer brings in order to complete the book sales task. Therefore, even if manufacturers do not announce price cuts, dealers will have great incentives to cut prices.
Therefore, 100,000 to 150,000 yuan will continue to reduce prices in the first half of the year to ease the pressure of inventory. For cars with more than 200,000 yuan, they will continue to cut prices because there is still room for price cuts. More than 200,000 yuan is the main source of profit for major manufacturers. Even if manufacturers complained of a drop in profits last year, the joint ventures still have a lot of profits.
The profits of high-end and high-end vehicles are still abundant, and last year's price cuts were basically without injury. This year, as the price of low-end vehicles has bottomed out, manufacturers must take out high-end vehicles to fight price wars in order to compete for market share. At the same time, due to the reduction of tariffs and cancellation of quotas, the prices of imported cars will also drop. Although the market share of imported cars is small, the impact on consumer psychology is not small. At the same time, the drop in the price of imported cars can indeed cause price pressure on high-end cars.
Zhang Xiaoxuan said that the price of 250,000-300,000 yuan will continue to fall. Other industry players also have similar judgments.
Therefore, in the first half of this year, there will continue to be price reductions for various models. In the second half of the year, prices will be reduced to more than 200,000 yuan. The price of vehicles under 150,000 yuan may remain generally stable.
The reason why the auto market is expected to open lower and higher will also come from expectations of policies, especially financial and credit policies.
Last year, commercial banks strictly tightened loans to consumer credit and distributors. Some analysts said that there seems to be no sign of relaxing the loans to dealers this year. However, there is room for consumer credit. This expectation comes from the launch of the financial credit business of multinational companies. Right now, the financial credit companies of several multinational companies have already started operations.
Li Ruogu, deputy governor of the central bank, pointed out that the outside world generally believes that China has entered the cycle of raising interest rates, saying that the concept of raising the interest rate cycle is only market speculation. According to a report released by the research group of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Macroeconomic Research Institute, "The 2004 interest rate hike does not mean that the 'period of raising interest rates' has arrived, and that the rate hike cycle is expected to arrive after 2006." China Daily According to sources, some researchers believe that China may relax measures taken to curb high credit growth last year.
The car with a price of less than RMB 200,000 is the main area for consumer credit. If the price of this part of the model can be generally stable in the second half of the year, supplemented by the non-adjusted interest rate and relaxed credit limit, the consumer credit rebound can indeed be expected. This will be a major positive for the auto market.
Zhang Xiaoxuan is more optimistic. He believes that there will be movements in the reduction of the cost of using the car, such as tolls, this year. However, Zhang Xiaoxuan did not explain his basis.
Tao Dong, chief economist of Credit Suisse First Boston Asia, has recently made a positive impact on the auto market if he accurately judges the macro economy. Tao Dong believes that the Chinese economy appears to be rebounding. The monetary infrastructure in recent months has been loosened, and many local industrial and real estate projects that were forced to be dismantled during the middle of last year were re-launched. At the same time, several major steel projects and several major chemical projects and other large-scale industrial projects successively approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in the past two months have also been launched.
Tao Dong believes that such a situation can bring positive expansion to the auto market. Because, many large-scale projects are re-introduced to the group consumption of mid- to high-end cars, which must not be neglected.