Lithium battery industry "Three Kingdoms" China needs to "from big to strong"

In the "small steel gun" Feng Xiaogang is still voicing "This movie can actually break 4 billion?", "War Wolf 2" brought unprecedented popularity and huge surprise to the Chinese film market with its fabulous success. If it weren't for it, this summer's summer may have gone so boring.

In my opinion, despite the low-cost investment and low-key premiere, Wu Jing and his team did not have the slightest cut in the craftsmanship and the "tough guy" attitude, which is the root of the film's great success. On the other hand, in the domestic lithium battery market, there are not many companies that can calm down and think hard and do things. The whole market is immersed in the “obscenity” of Japan and South Korea.

Big but not strong! !

All along, the global lithium battery industry basically presents the pattern of “Three Kingdoms” in China, Japan and Korea, and the three occupy about 97% of the global market share. Since 2015, driven by the new energy vehicle, China's lithium-ion battery industry has begun to grow rapidly. In 2015, it has surpassed South Korea and Japan to rank first in the world. In 2016, the leading edge continued to expand.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2016, the cumulative production of lithium-ion batteries in China reached 7.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, and the growth rate reached a new high since 2010. The industrial scale reached 128 billion yuan, surpassing the 100 billion yuan mark for the first time. Increase by 30%. According to Forbes News, it is estimated that the global share of lithium batteries in China will increase from 40% in 2016 to 70% in 2020.

The huge scale of China's lithium battery market often reminds me of a playful ancient saying, "There is a fish in the North, and it is called a cockroach. It is a big one, and it can't be stewed." Yes, China's lithium battery companies not only have a large production and sales volume. And the investment in the industry is not diminished, and the financial market is very active. According to incomplete statistics, in 2016, there were 60 domestic lithium-ion industry M&A projects with an amount of more than 50 billion yuan; the domestic lithium-ion industry investment (including planned investment) exceeded 120 billion yuan, and the actual investment was 55 billion yuan. In addition, with the deep promotion of the “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative, the journey of China's power battery companies based on the global and overseas markets has already begun.

China's lithium battery industry is undoubtedly the largest in the world, but there are many people who have expressed doubts about it. At present, there are still many gaps in the core technology of China's lithium battery industry compared with Japan and South Korea. This is undoubted. For example, in terms of materials, the import substitution rate of high-end products such as aluminum plastic film is still very low. Even in some basic research of power supply, including consistency and battery safety, there is still a large distance. From these perspectives, China's lithium battery industry is "not strong."

Overtaking Japan and South Korea? ?

In the case that the “quantity” has already surpassed Japan and South Korea, can China really dominate the global lithium battery industry?

A ridicule from the industry may give us some vigilance. "Everyone knows that a new technology and a new product are high-end before Chinese companies come in. Once the Chinese enterprises are mass-produced, the industry will be quickly cabbage. In fact, this is because the Chinese market is too broad.

Of course, we should treat this issue dialectically. The coordinated development of the industry chain that we often mention needs to promote the product-centric large-scale manufacturing to the user-centered industrial chain manufacturing. In other words, China wants to truly dominate the global battery industry, and it needs a process from quantitative change to qualitative change.

Nissan's sale of the AESC battery business is a good example. It is understood that Nissan and NEC have almost stripped off all of the lithium battery business to improve the flexibility and cost reduction of the purchase of power batteries for their new energy vehicles, but retain the independent research and development in the use of new materials to create a new generation of battery technology.

Why does Nissan buck the battery business to Jinshajiang Capital? Among them, there may be a realistic consideration of AESC technology route error and capital transfer to cash out, but the rapid rise of Chinese enterprises and large-scale competition bring about a low profit level of the lithium battery industry. Therefore, it is more reasonable for Nissan to abandon AESC and then choose a supplier as a battery buyer.

Although the acquisition will not cause much impact and challenges on China's power battery market and local battery companies, it has made us more calm thinking about the development of the domestic lithium battery industry - the entry of capital should not be just a business basin. Full of summer festivals, but the icing on the cake for the long-term development of the lithium battery industry. As for the "three kingdoms" of China, Japan and Korea in the lithium battery industry, it is meaningless to lose the king. It is a long-term solution to focus on the "four beams and eight pillars" of self-development.

Zhang Yu, secretary-general of the Power Battery Application Branch of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, believes that with the development of new energy automobile industry, China’s “Standard Pilot’ Chi’s Future – UL Power Battery Standards Seminar It has also developed into a power battery country. However, relying solely on the scale effect, it will not be able to achieve the “great strength” of the domestic power battery industry, nor will it be able to promote China’s leap from “car big country” to “car power country”.

"If you want to become a lithium power country, let the domestic lithium battery products, especially the power batteries, shoulder to shoulder, Japan and South Korea, our industry does have a long way to go. Lithium battery companies should be able to sink their minds, steady and steady, after all, laugh last The winner is." Zhang Yu said.

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