In order to implement the "three rural" policy and protect farmers' interests and enthusiasm for agricultural production, our government has successively introduced a series of regulatory measures to regulate and control the market price of agricultural materials. Under the strict price-limit policy, what caused the domestic price of potash fertilizer to continue to rise? The reporter learned that the fundamental reason is that the international potash fertilizer market prices have risen rapidly.
At present, the price of international fertilizer continues to rise rapidly, which is closely related to changes in the pattern of grain supply and demand. According to the latest report of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global grain inventories at the end of the 2007/2008 period were only 405 million tons, which was the lowest since 1982; the inventory-to-consumer ratio was 18.8%, which was close to the 18% warning level. In addition, in some parts of Southeast Asia and Haiti, there have been various degrees of food shortage crisis, and factors such as the weakening of the US dollar have caused the price of fertilizers to hit new highs.
According to the report of the Fertilizer Industry's authoritative media, the International Fertilizer Market Weekly (FMB), the cif prices of major potash fertilizer importing countries all have risen sharply. The CIF price in Southeast Asia rose from about 230 U.S. dollars at the beginning of the year to 450 U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, and it has now reached a historic value of 750 U.S. dollars. As the fourth-largest importer of Brazil, the CIF of imports in the second quarter of 2008 has also reached 750 US dollars, more than doubled over the same period last year. Industry insiders predict that the international potash market price will likely reach 1,000 US dollars during the year.
The annual demand for potash in China is close to 11 million tons, but due to resource shortage, the domestic production is only about 3 million tons, and the import dependence is over 70%. Although China's import prices have remained at a relatively low level in the world for many years, the recent rapid increase in the prices of the international market still has a direct impact on prices in the domestic market. The actual delivery price of China's bulk imported potash fertilizers from Russia and Belarus was increased from around US$260 in September 2007 to around US$350 in December and reached US$510 by April 2008. In April, the import cost of potash fertilizers on the ground. On the other hand, the rapid development of agricultural production and the gradual promotion of the concept of balanced fertilization in recent years have made the demand for potash fertilizer in China grow significantly higher than nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer. In early 2008, the supply of potash fertilizers in the country became increasingly tense. Potash stocks at ports totaled about 3 million tons, which was lower than the same period of previous years.
According to statistics from the China Minmetals Chemicals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the import volume of potash from China's land fell from January to February by 46%, making the area of ​​traditional potash fertilizers used in the northern regions significantly insufficient. Before the import contract was signed in 2008, domestic potash stocks could not be effectively supplemented. After March, there were various shortages of potash fertilizer in major fertilizer areas, which eventually caused the transaction prices between grassroots dealers and end users to keep rising.
In summary, due to the higher dependence on foreign countries, the international potash fertilizer market price has risen rapidly, leading to cost-driven price increases in the domestic potash fertilizer market. The imbalance in supply and demand in local markets and the chaotic order in some regions are also important reasons for the increase in potash prices. (Reporter Gong Jie)
External disk leads domestic potash prices
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market price of potash fertilizer has been rising all the way, showing a rapid upward trend. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Information Network, domestic white potassium port delivery price was 2,250 yuan (ton price, the same below) in October 2007, and the prices rose rapidly after entering 2008. The price rose to 3,300 yuan in January and reached 3,600 yuan in March. 4,000 yuan in April. As an important agricultural means of production, potash fertilizer has caused its excessive price rise to attract widespread attention from various sectors in the country.