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Fairly providing energy and energy related environments are two major challenges we face. There are many people in the world. Due to economic development, energy is a very basic need. To improve living standards and economic development, there is no shortage of energy. Now on the issue of sustainable development, there is a developed country how to change its current high consumption - more than 10% of the population consumes nearly 70% of the world's energy; and accounts for an additional 70% of the total population. 80% of countries have about 30% of the world's energy. If developing countries are using the developed countries' consumption methods, there will surely be a problem of how the world supplies energy to many people. So this is discussed from the rationality and fairness of the energy supply – after all, is it true that most people have a sustainable and safe energy supply?
On the other hand, energy also involves a lot of environmental problems. The actual situation is that energy itself may also cause many serious environmental problems in the process of development and use conversion. In particular, in the past decades, developed countries have endeavored to solve pollution problems that people traditionally think of, such as sulfur dioxide emissions and dust emissions, and the gradual release of ash emissions from the burning of these energy sources and even the environmental problems that arise during energy extraction. After that, there is now a global warming issue. In the past, people thought that carbon dioxide was not a harmful substance. Now, in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide emissions gradually accumulate due to human and energy-related activities, and the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere gradually increases. This poses a major danger to global environmental change - that is, global warming. Therefore, global environmental issues are also closely related to energy development and use.
Therefore, when it comes to sustainable development, it is necessary to consider how to provide the necessary energy for all mankind in a more fair and adequate manner in the future, and to create opportunities for developing countries in particular. On the other hand, we must also address local and global energy sources. Related environmental issues. This is the two challenges we face in the sustainable development of energy.
China is eyeing more and more energy supply and the environment. China is both a developing country and a big country. In fact, from the perspective of total energy consumption, China is now the second consumer in the world. Although China’s gross domestic product is not yet the second largest in the world (it may be sixth now), the population is the world’s number one. Therefore, it is now necessary to have a sufficient energy supply problem in the development of the economy. Afterwards, with the economic growth, energy supply will increase, but China has a problem of a large population. If China and developed countries adopt the same energy consumption method, how to supply China’s energy becomes a problem because China now has a country with a larger population than now. The population of developed countries adds up. Although the U.S. consumes more energy than China, the U.S. population is only less than a quarter of China's. If China uses the same energy as the U.S., a country in our country will consume 60% to 70% or more of the world's energy. This is not actually possible.
Therefore, China now faces two problems. One is how to find a fuller energy supply for China in economic development; the other is how to improve energy efficiency, because China cannot simply repeat the path that developed countries have already taken. The second issue is that China has not yet completely resolved or is still far from achieving this goal. There are also energy-related environmental pollution issues. Of course, more energy will be used later in China, and it will also become a big emitter of greenhouse gases. In this matter, international pressure and the responsibilities that it should shoulder will become more and more heavy. This is a difficult problem.
China needs to be developed and avoid the current high energy consumption of developed countries. Looking at the history of human development, the current level of economic development and per capita energy consumption can be said to be positively related. Although even in developed countries, each has its own merits, some countries like the United States and Canada may not have particularly high energy efficiency. The per capita energy consumption is much higher, even higher than that of the developed countries. There are also some developed countries that have relatively lower per capita energy. From the point of view, it is even higher from three tons to seven tons of standard coal per person. But generally speaking, from the present situation, the energy consumption per capita is relatively high when it reaches a level of development. For example, the per capita energy consumption of the OECD (developed country group) is around four tons of standard oil, which is about seven times the per capita consumption of China.
Of course, according to the official exchange rate, the per capita GDP of China is still very low (less than 1,000 US dollars), and China's per capita energy consumption is now less than one ton of standard coal, so it is more than 10 times worse than the United States, more than the average developed The national average is 7 times worse. Therefore, it is also a major issue that we urgently need to solve in order to avoid the high per capita energy consumption in developed countries and to avoid the current developed countries.
It is impossible for China to follow the path of “pollution after pollution first†and “first use and then increase efficiencyâ€. In the development process of developed countries, especially in the process of industrialization, most of them have walked through a process of pollution first, because people do not know The problem of pollution later caused many harms directly related to people. For example, phenomena such as the “London Fog Incident†in the UK and “painful illness†in Japan are all activities related to industry and energy. At that time, people did not recognize it as pollution until the end of the year to bring health or other productivity. Destroyed, everyone discovered that it was necessary to govern. For China, first of all, we must not make any more mistakes made by others, so we must pay attention to environmental protection from now on.
Second, Chinese people are numerous and cannot afford to waste at the beginning, nor can they take the lead in fully using and then increasing their efficiency. From now on, we must increase energy efficiency and use less energy to create higher national production. Value and social wealth. This is an important aspect that China should take from the path taken by the developed countries or its lessons learned.
China's energy input-output ratio and energy system efficiency are lower?
From the aspect of energy efficiency, there are two other indicators: one is the GDP that a unit of energy consumption can generate, which is the input and output (input energy can produce added value); the other is that from a technical point of view, it can also calculate the unit product. Energy consumption, but also can calculate how much energy is wasted and how much energy is actually changed in the entire energy system, from coal mining, oil extraction, to oil refining, power generation, and terminal utilization, and finally converting electricity into mechanical energy or other energy services. The final useful energy source is technically called the efficiency of the energy system.
In these two aspects, China still has a large gap. For example, from the perspective of GDP per unit of energy consumption, China may have several times the gap compared to the advanced countries in the world (developed countries); this is also true in terms of energy system efficiency and unit energy consumption, such as the energy consumption of some products (main products like steel, Other metallurgical products, important chemical products, and some high energy-consuming building materials) are 10% worse, some 30% worse, and some worse, 50%, 70%. Of course, great progress has been made in recent years.
From the current calculation of energy system efficiency, China's energy efficiency is about 30%. (Some experts also believe that the exploitation of resources is not used in mining, so that China's efficiency is even lower, of course, this calculation has It's not clear when we say it.) People estimate that developed countries have now reached 40% or even 50%. Therefore, China’s gap in this area still exists.
The dual economic structure causes China to be relatively backward?
The reasons for the gap between China and developed countries in these two aspects are more complicated. In recognition of history, China is now in a process of development. It is moving from an agricultural country to an industrialized country, and it has not yet fully realized industrialization. There was a saying that the total industrial output value is greater than the agricultural output value is industrialization. In fact, If 60% or 70% of the population still live on agriculture, industrialization will not be completed. So now our dual economy is still very serious and the process of industrialization is still very long. Therefore, in the process of capital accumulation, it was impossible to completely adopt high technology at the outset. The countries that have fully realized industrialization in the world have been engaged for decades or even longer, and their industries have become more intensive; China now has both the most advanced technologies and Very backward technologies are being used. This is a process. Differences between China's industrial structure and developed countries are also reflected in energy consumption, and local protection has limited economies of scale.
Second, the same is true of the industrial structure. Because China's education level, technological development capability, market capacity, and market demand are different from those in the middle developed countries. Therefore, developed countries now mainly rely on high value-added and high-tech industries to occupy positions; for some high-energy-consuming and relatively primitive raw material industries, they often quit or maintain relatively low levels. China's current high-value-added industries are also subject to restrictions on resources, technology, and capabilities. Therefore, China's industrial structure is different from that of developed countries. for example. A Boeing 747 can sell more than 100 million U.S. dollars. It weighs more than 100 tons. If we engage in materials, the more than 100 tons of materials will cost hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars. This is tens of thousands of times worse because of different technological content. Of course, it is impossible to imagine that China's entire industrial structure is exactly the same as that of developed countries. There are so many people in China who are engaged in agriculture. This is a natural gap, that is, the gap in the so-called GDP energy consumption. It is impossible for China to fully use advanced technology because there is a process of accumulation; however, there are still some problems in the past that the planned economy system has not had enough market competition, protection has been backward, scale economies cannot be fully realized, and institutional interests have not been properly solved. For example, local protectionism, or splitting of interests, prefers to engage in small, big, and rather unwilling families to concentrate. Some economies of scale did not materialize and protected some backward things. So there are two reasons for this.
In recent years, China’s economic growth in high-growth energy consumption has been related to the adjustment of industrial structure. Actually, China’s energy consumption was still increasing before 1996, and from 1997 to 1998, 1999, and 2000, during the three or four years, Statistics show that there has been a sudden change in China's energy growth, economic growth has remained at more than 7 points, and energy consumption has not only declined, but has declined, especially coal consumption. Of course, starting from last year, the total energy consumption began to increase, and energy demand is still increasing in the first half of this year. Personally, I think that the decline in energy consumption is a relatively short-lived process. Recall that from 1996 to 1997, China’s economic reforms had just reached a turning point. At that time, the allocation of resources based on market forces was basically realized. Before this, everything was in short supply. However, in 1997, there was suddenly no need to rob for living materials, and there was also product competition. There was a fight between brands and price cuts, and there was a change in the market for production materials. In fact, after more than ten years of reform and opening up efforts have reached a turning point - China has entered the market economy from a shortage of economy. Of course, the changes in the industrial structure, including the reform of state-owned enterprises, are also increasing. In the past, there was no inventory of state-owned enterprises that could be reformed. Now that there are market interventions and state-owned enterprise reforms, the hard constraints of the market have caused wasteful production in the past to fail to carry inventory. There will be no one to buy inventory, the factory will close down, if the market is not the product of the road to other production. This also saves a lot of productivity that was wasted in the past. At the same time, after actual energy reforms, energy prices and energy distribution systems have changed greatly. This has increased the country’s energy efficiency.
The rapid economic growth and declining energy consumption are only temporary and many factors have contributed to the world’s remarkable changes in energy consumption in the three to four years since 1997. However, this is still a transitional process. The goal after that is to strive for energy growth to be slower than economic growth, and the slower it is, the better. In the past, the rate of energy growth was about half that of economic growth. If it can be maintained for a long time in the future, This ratio is a great success. In fact, it is impossible for China to reduce its energy when the economy is growing at a rate of 7% or 8% for several years. If this is the case, it will indeed be like an argument put forward by many foreign economists or some people who are not very familiar with the situation in China. They doubt whether the Chinese economy is real – material consumption does not go up, and whether the rate of economic growth is not a juggle. ? Is there a bubble? Everyone will have this idea. The current decline in energy consumption is a short-term adjustment and will not always be the case in the future. It has now begun to turn. Energy consumption will also gradually grow. We strive to prevent it from growing too fast, but in the course of China's economic development, industrialization and urbanization, the growth of energy consumption is inevitable.
From the perspective of industry and products, we advocate high efficiency and low cost?
There is a view that we should vigorously develop industries that are efficient and have low energy consumption. Of course, there is a restriction on market conditions - the market can not accommodate is on the one hand, from the perspective of industrial policy, China should indeed conduct appropriate guidance, or should encourage the development of high efficiency - high output, high added value, low energy consumption industries. Because China has a large population, if we go for the development of so-called energy-intensive basic materials such as metallurgy and building materials, especially those with relatively low added value, China’s entire energy consumption will face the problem of how to ensure energy efficiency and adequate supply. Clearly this is a problem. Not a suitable direction.
On the other hand, even in the same industry, high efficiency and low consumption still have different meanings. Now that energy conservation is being promoted, there should be industrial policy guidance on the energy efficiency of the product itself. For example, air conditioners or refrigerators, while providing the same services, should also encourage the development of products with high efficiency, low power consumption, and low energy consumption. This is called product structure adjustment and encouragement.
Should be treated differently from each other If we look at the three major industries, the tertiary industry is better than the secondary industry (manufacturing) in terms of output and energy efficiency. Of course, in the tertiary industry there are also high and low, in the second industry, in general, the basic raw materials, metallurgy, chemical, heavy chemical, or building materials, compared to other machine manufacturing, electronics, telecommunications, some pharmaceuticals, biological In terms of products, etc., the high-tech industry is now talking about the former is relatively high energy consumption. But in fact, there are differences in the high-energy part. For example, in chemical industry, some traditional raw materials of basic chemical industry are completely used. The added value and low energy consumption are relatively high. However, the output value of some fine chemicals and fine products is also high. Therefore, it is necessary to properly understand and apply industrial guidance policies, and to adapt to the needs of the market, we must conduct concrete analysis in a practical and realistic manner. However, it is true that industry guidance encourages high efficiency and low consumption, and it should be advocated.
Industrial planning can't be implemented across the board. Industrial planning must be based on economic accounts and technical accounting, rather than letting the whole industry fail to do everything. This is a past idea, too extreme. Now Beijing has cut down Shougang and partially relocated its output from 8 million tons to 4 million tons. In fact, first of all, it is necessary to seriously consider the environment, because it really takes a few billions of relocation fees, it is better to take Shougang good governance. There is a cement factory and a coking plant near Shougang. Many of them are not Shougang's business. One piece is considered the head of Shougang. Environmental protection is also a matter of people’s choice. There are also many reasons for economics, such as not allowing people to eat this, not letting people use it, being able to act individually, or not to drive, or drive, or ride. Bicycles, but it is not universally required not to drive, or to return to the original state of the past - that of course there is no environmental problem, everyone is kind of burning firewood, life is very simple. Therefore, it is sometimes allowed for a few people to take the lead in rushing far; but as a normative, common-regular, social, and legal standard of the government, it cannot be mentioned. The same is true of foreign countries. Now there are a lot of environmentalists who start not eating meat. They are vegetarians. He believes that eating meat first destroys the ecology, and killing any animal is destroying the ecology. Of course, whether this can be a mainstream and a reasonable social guiding trend is not necessarily certain. It is difficult for many people to become malnourished and agriculture has become a problem. Therefore, in many things, the pursuit of rationality is not the same as the emotional pursuit of sensibility or the pursuit of the minority's preference. It should not be opposed to vegetarians claiming that environmental protection is very good and cute, but from an economic point of view, there are some things that do not harm the minority and it is difficult to ask everyone to do it. Many options should be allowed.
Should not advocate luxury consumption Of course, we must oppose the extravagance of wasteful behavior. In fact, some propaganda is not advocating simpleness at present, but it is advocating extravagance from a commercial perspective. Recently, the auto show said that there was a total of 8.88 million vehicles. Even overseas, even a few kings and nobles, particularly big capitalists, or big stars in the performing arts sector were extremely hard-pressed and used to place their brands. China should never advocate this thing. This guidance is wrong. It is purely commercial speculation. It is a problem in terms of sustainable development. Although the high fuel consumption, it is not only a reality, but also as a spiritual pursuit is not necessary.
China is still faced with the problem of sustainable development. Many people are concerned about development. These problems will be encountered in the development. Some expensive things are also bought. In fact, the Chinese dual economy is very powerful. According to 36% of the urban population, more than 1.2 billion times 36% is also more than 400 million people. This kind of urban population is more developed than any other country. The population of the country’s cities is much larger. The so-called 98% of the people in the United States live in non-agricultural cities and do not add up to 300 million. Of course, our personal living standards are not high enough. The market in China is already very big. In this case, how to correctly guide it does not mean politics or air conditioning - in fact, real sustainable development also faces a grim situation. For example, China's computer chips are all imported. At the beginning of the field of mobile phones, the Ministry of Electronics and the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications had said that the communications were confidential in order to protect the monopoly. Which is technically ridiculous. Bin Laden didn't dare to have a mobile phone. Why? Once you use the mobile phone signal, others can listen to the main content. No matter what brand type the machine is, whether it is a Chinese machine or a foreign machine, as long as you use a wireless compatible mobile phone to communicate, the content is completely invisible. As long as it is wireless, it may be Interception is 100% open. So now many places (in the United States, China, etc.) will not be allowed to enter mobile phones on certain occasions, because mobile phones can also be remotely monitored by others even if they are off. Must remove the battery. Therefore, it was proposed that foreigners should not be allowed to do this because of security issues. If it is still safe to protect national industries and develop their own industries, excuses for security are sometimes unscientific.
For a long period of time, we believe that we have an independent energy system in terms of energy issues. China does not import or export oil. It doesn't matter where we are. Now, once you enter the world oil market, people are chaos. In fact, as long as it is an oil importing country, it has the same problem. The United States is the largest oil importer, and it ultimately comes down to the energy issue, so it takes many measures. It's not safe to use oil, but it's safe to get over there, leading to a loss of the market or insecurity; many export factories are also insecure. So the security concept will change.
Second, international resources are still very abundant and there are a large number of ecological capabilities. It is best that China will catch up in the next few decades.
Third, even if oil and natural gas resources become tense after decades, they will not go back and use the watt steam engine again. The society is changing and progressing, and it will not turn back to ordering oil lamps. Technological advances can replace new, cleaner, more secure energy sources. There is no need to fear that it will not be used now. This is a kind of stagnant and closed point of view. Recently, radio broadcasts said that after China’s development in Daqing, China will always remove caps for lean oil and imported oil. This “forever†is wrong, and imports have now begun.
Conclusion The energy issue is a very important issue for the national economy. Especially in the 80s and 90s of the last century, it was a headache for many economic development people to develop energy and obtain energy supply. At that time, we all had memories of power cuts and so on; now we have passed this stage, but There are new challenges to sustainable energy development. As far as energy is concerned, it is not just whether there is a problem, but a problem of quality, a problem of environmental protection, or a problem of adjustment of efficiency.
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From the National Energy Strategy to See the Significance of Fuel Tax Reform
One of the significances of implementing the fuel tax reform is to increase the current taxation rate for refined oil consumption tax, which is conducive to the use of taxation leverage to promote energy saving and emission reduction, environmental protection, and optimization of economic structure, as well as the positive role of promoting the transformation of economic development patterns. Energy has always been an important topic in the issue of sustainable development. When interviewed by the China Macroeconomic Information Network, Mr. Zhou Dadi, Director of the Energy Research Institute of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the State Development Planning Commission, conducted an analysis of the status quo of China’s energy sources, problems faced, etc. It may help us understand the fuel tax The significance of the reform provides some deeper consideration. Here are some of Mr. Zhou’s views shared with everyone.