In 2011, the nation’s auto sales exceeded 18.5 million vehicles, which was the lowest in 13 years

2011 is destined to become a unique year for the Chinese auto industry. According to the latest report of the CSR Auto Market, the auto market experienced a rare negative growth in 2011. From the terminal sales, the growth rate of domestic autos in the domestic market last year was -7%. This is a rare pattern of adjustment in more than a decade, indicating that the direction of the auto market will undergo a fundamental change.

Only 16.6 million units of terminal sales were sold in the year just in December 2011. The auto market began to achieve "adjusted years" with more than expected performance. Last year, passenger car production reached 14.42 million units, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year, and domestic sales reached 13.7 million vehicles, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year. Because of the negative growth in the commercial vehicle market, even if we look at wholesale data, the overall market is almost zero growth.

However, only the end market data can more accurately reflect the state of the auto market. According to Rao Da, Secretary-General of the Federation of Travel Unions, in 2011, the domestic terminal sales of domestic cars were 1.9 million fewer than the wholesale sales, only 16.6 million, which was a negative growth of 7 percentage points from the previous year. At present, China's auto sales are based on the number of wholesales, and most countries in the world report auto sales based on terminal sales.

The Judging Committee’s judgment is based on the fact that manufacturers have collected about 500,000 cars from October 2010 to the end of the year and spit it out in 2011; from the beginning of 2011 to the end of the year, distributors’ inventory has increased from a lower level of the median line. To the normal level, an increase of more than 700,000 dealers inventory; in 2011 about 800,000 automobile exports, together with domestic sales of domestic vehicles in 2011 16.60 million, minus minus 100,000 in 2011 Production and sales constitute the statistical wholesale number of automobiles.

As a result, the domestic terminal sales volume of domestically-made cars in 2011 was 1.9 million fewer than that of wholesale sales. In 2010, the domestic terminal sales of domestic cars were calculated to be 17.82 million. In 2011, the growth rate of the domestic auto market was -7%.

Leading consumer energy is expected to re-accumulate. The auto market entered deeper adjustments under the influence of three major stimulus policies such as purchase tax concessions and exits last year, bid farewell to the “blowout” period lasting two years. However, Rao Da believes that although the Chinese economy continues to be in a soft landing process in 2012, the passenger car market will recover early. This is due to the fact that the passenger car's advanced consumption energy has accumulated again, the national economy and the staff's income are still growing, the adjustment of the economic structure has promoted consumption, and people's pursuit of modern life brought by automobiles is still a factor in the rapid growth of the passenger car market. The driving force. The reduction of taxes by small enterprises, the continuation of beneficial agricultural policies, and the further acceleration of the development of the western region have all contributed to the expansion of the passenger car market.

At the same time, Rao Da also believes that due to the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the recovery in Europe and the United States has slowed down, making room for China’s oil consumption, and the petroleum politics issue may not be intensified. The Chinese government believes that the management of traffic jams has achieved some results, and civil servants who formulate policies have reason to temporarily not increase the fuel tax. The increase in fuel tax can only be implemented in the fourth quarter of 2012 or 2013.

Due to the above constraints and promotion factors, the C-FIT predicts that without increasing the fuel tax, the number of vehicles sold in accordance with the statistics of the China Automotive Industry Association will be about 19.8 million vehicles, an increase of about 7%, of which passenger vehicles will be 15.55 million vehicles and 4.25 million commercial vehicles. Domestic vehicle sales in the domestic market were 18.56 million, up 12%.

The CLUCC believes that narrow passenger cars are still the main driving force for the growth of the automobile market this year. Narrow customer vehicles can achieve positive growth in cumulative sales in the second quarter; due to the miniaturization of passenger cars and technological advancements, it is estimated that minibuses will accumulate sales in the third quarter. Positive growth can be restored; this will support the higher growth of the general passenger car. The trucks are expected to have positive growth in cumulative sales in the fourth quarter. Passenger cars continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate. This is due to the state's purchase of school buses, which adds new impetus to passenger car growth in 2012. Due to the low base of passenger cars, the impact on the overall market of commercial vehicles is relatively small.

Single-digit growth will become the norm, but the auto market has already bid farewell to the past “blob blowout” type of high-speed growth, and it will be a foregone conclusion to maintain the single-digit growth rate in the future. From the sales target announced by some auto companies this year, it can also be seen that the industry is cautious about the future market growth rate.

If Geely Automobile expects sales volume to reach 460,000 units in 2012, it will exceed 9% in 2011. In 2012, Dongfeng’s main business objectives were: to sell 3.3 million vehicles; to achieve a sales income of RMB 420 billion; the profit was better than the previous year's level. This will be approximately 8% higher than Dongfeng's 2011 sales volume. Toyota Motor Corporation plans to sell more than one million vehicles in the Chinese market this year, an increase of more than 10% year-on-year.