Rapid development of metal forming machine tools

During the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, the compound growth rates of cutting machine tools and forming machine tools were 26.7% and 19.6%, respectively. The corresponding data during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period was 21.72% and 30.32%, respectively, and the growth of forming machine tools had exceeded that of cutting machine tools.

First, the requirements of the sheet forming machine are driven by the consumption of the sheet. From the point of view of equipment usage, the forming machine is mainly used for forgings and plate processing; and the Machine Tool Industry Association is making statistics according to the types of machine tools, including shearing machines and bending and folding straightening. The machine belongs to the sheet metal processing machine, while the mechanical presses and hydraulic presses with larger specific gravity include forging presses (forgings manufacturing) and punching presses (plate processing).

From the perspective of direct demand, the proportion of domestic steel consumption in sheet metal is still low. In 2010, domestic steel consumption was about 650 million tons, and the proportion of sheet steel was less than 50%, while the corresponding data in developed countries generally reached 60-70%. In the downstream demand for steel, the construction industry accounted for more than 50%, machinery manufacturing and consumption accounted for 16%; again, transport and equipment related industries, including containers, railways, shipbuilding and automobiles, and the rest for household appliances, oil and gas, and other industries. .

Due to the different consumption structure of steel products in the downstream industries, although the construction industry is the largest consumer of steel products, most of which are steel wire and profiles, the pulling effect on forming machines is not obvious. Sheet forming machines serve the entire sheet metal processing industry chain. The growth in sheet metal consumption in the downstream industry is the driving force for the growth of sheet forming machine tools.

Second, the long-term growth trend of CNC machine tools clear (A) the overall growth of the industry benefited from import substitution in the past ten years, the high growth of the forming machine industry driven by two factors: the expansion of market size and import substitution. During the period, the compound growth rate of the sales value of the forming machine tool industry was 24% (the compound annual growth rate of apparent consumption was 17%). The reason for import substitution was the improvement of the product structure of the industry itself (increased product grade + improved numerical control rate).

The domestic forming machine tool market has long relied heavily on imported equipment. Before 2003, the localization rate of machine tools was less than 45%. In 2009-10, the market share of domestic machine tools remained at around 75%. The major increase in localization rate was mainly due to the structural growth of the forming machine tool industry, mainly in two aspects: 1. The overall improvement of the NC ratio was the upgrading of the downstream manufacturing industry. The development trend of the machine; 2. The improvement of the performance of the forming machine's sheeting machine, which shows that the processing performance is getting better and better; the performance of the functional components is getting higher and higher; and the improvement of the types of machine tools, such as the replacement of the CNC turret punch press, from the initial mechanical pressure. The machine is gradually upgraded to a hydraulically driven and then a new generation of mechanical servo drives.

Benefiting from the increase in the localization rate, the growth in the sales value of the forming machine tool industry will be significantly higher than the apparent consumption amount. The reason for the increase in the localization rate is the continuous industrial upgrading of the industry (the increase in the numerical control rate is an important indicator).

(II) The rate of digitization is improving, and the space in the future is large The increase in localization rate is fundamentally due to the product structure adjustment. We use the numerical control rate to measure the product structure of the industry.

(1) The space of numerical control machine tools is wide. The current numerical control machine tooling rate is relatively low. By the end of 2010, the numerical control rate of metal cutting machine tools reached 29.62%, and the numerical control rate of production value was close to 60%; the numerical control rate of metal forming machine tools was only 4.67%, and the numerical control rate of output value was less than 30%. The domestic forming machine started later than the cutting machine tool, and the forming process itself has a low degree of precision. Therefore, the numerical control level of the forming machine tool is lower than that of the cutting machine tool.

From the perspective of product structure, the key enterprises of metal forming machine tools in China mainly use mechanical presses, which are mainly traditional hand-controlled forging machines and have low-end product structures.

During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the numerical rate of domestic forming machine tools has increased rapidly, but there is still a big gap with Japan and other machine tool powerhouses; in 2010 Japan, Germany, the metallurgical machine tool production rate of 60 to 70%, the output value of CNC The conversion rate exceeds 90%, and the numerical control rate of the domestic production value of machine tools has a large room for growth. From the standpoint of product quality, the increase in the share of high-end products has increased the average price of machine tools. In 2005, the numerical control rate and average unit price of forming machine tools were 1.7% and 121,100 yuan, respectively. In the first half of the year, the corresponding figures were 6.0% and 208,400 yuan respectively. The unit price of machine tools increased by 72.1%, indicating that the domestic forming machine tool structure is Promote.

(2) Structural adjustment is conducive to long-term growth. Equipment replacement is an inevitable long-term trend in manufacturing. The external pressure of rising labor costs has forced companies to adjust the proportion of production factors, forcing companies to use “machines instead of labor” and actively seek industrial upgrading. The proportion of the mechanized manufacturing industry will continue to increase, which will benefit the long-term prosperity of the forming machine tool industry.

The expansion of the industrial chain facilitates the substitution of forming machine tools for cutting machine tools. The application scope of the machining process has a tendency to shrink. The forming machine tool has replaced the cutting machine tool in some industrial chain links and has driven the demand for forming machine tools. Ordinary equipment changes to high-performance stand-alone and flexible production lines.

In particular, with the development of the modern automobile industry toward the direction of large-scale production, individualized models, relatively small volume of models, rapid model changes, multi-model collinear production, and large-scale integration of body panels, traditional processing of single species The rigid production line has not adapted to the development of the situation.

In view of the rapid development of automatic control theory, computer technology, electronic technology, information technology, motor technology and fluid transmission technology and its successful application in machinery and equipment, the rapid popularity of the numerical control of sheet forming equipment and the continuous introduction of new products have been promoted. , With high flexibility and high efficiency of automated stamping equipment, is the development trend of the world's stamping technology and equipment.

Third, industry problems There is a lot of industry concentration, and there is still room for industry profitability. The lower concentration of the domestic forming machine tool industry is mainly due to the low numerical control rate of the forming machine tool industry, the mature or low-end machine tool technology is mature, the market demand and product structure are relatively decentralized, and the competition is fierce.

The total market share of domestic top ten forming machine tool manufacturers is less than 30%. There is a breadth and depth difference in the structure of the forming machine tools of various manufacturers. The market for medium and high-end CNC machine tools has a certain degree of concentration, and there is a high level of entry for new entrants. At the threshold, the market for medium and high-end CNC coiling machine tools will gradually be concentrated in several companies that have mastered high-end technologies and have capital and management advantages.