Suspension of subsidies behind the three yuan lithium battery industry is facing a premature

Recently, industry sources pointed out that the safety of new energy vehicles can not be judged by a single material. "Safety is also related to comprehensive factors such as batteries, modules, battery packs, vehicle design and control systems, and is particularly affected by the level of battery production technology and quality management."

When the new energy car station to the industrial development of the "spout", as the heart of new energy vehicles, the battery is undergoing "Icefire two heavy days."


Suspension of subsidies behind the three yuan lithium battery industry is facing a premature

What is a lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP) or a tri-lithium battery?

This controversy surrounding the power battery technology line, because out of consideration for the power battery safety issues, suspended the ternary lithium battery passenger car to be included in the list of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles and once again been the industry's attention.

On January 14, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the Catalogue of Recommended Vehicles for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles. The Catalogue does not include ternary electric commercial buses. This means that models that do not enter the "Catalogue" will not be able to enjoy government subsidies and policy exemption from purchase tax (10%).

The safety of the electric vehicle industry is no small matter, and any caution cannot be overemphasized. Focusing on the automotive power battery, how to balance the two issues of battery life and safety has once again become a topic discussed in the industry. Insiders pointed out that the safety of new energy vehicles can not be judged by a single material. "Safety is also related to comprehensive factors such as batteries, modules, battery packs, vehicle design and control systems, and is particularly affected by the level of battery production technology and quality management."

Power Battery Route Controversy

Although it was only a "suspend", this decision still poured cold water on the booming three-cell lithium battery industry.

"Some customers using ternary batteries have asked us to cancel or postpone orders." A source of ternary lithium battery manufacturers, who declined to be named, told reporters recently.

At present, the battery technology of domestic pure electric vehicles is roughly divided into two types: one is a ternary battery, and the other is a lithium iron phosphate battery.

Lithium iron phosphate thermal runaway temperature is higher than the ternary system (ternary 190 °C, lithium iron phosphate 230 °C), its positive electrode material safety has advantages. Judging from the battery pack of the loading unit, the ternary battery is 15% smaller than lithium iron phosphate and 20% lighter in weight, and the ternary vehicle has more space utilization.

From a global perspective, ternary cells currently account for more than 80% of the global lithium-ion battery market. According to ATKearney, a global business consulting and professional company, 93% of the total lithium-ion secondary battery bipolar materials market is ternary battery materials, and the market share of electric vehicle batteries exceeds 81, which requires high output and safety. %.

In the Chinese market, power battery companies have developed earlier in the field of lithium iron phosphate and have a higher overall market share. And compared with foreign markets, in contrast, foreign new energy buses are few, private cars are more.

According to public information, in 2015, the shipment of power batteries reached 15.7 Gwh, among which lithium iron phosphate batteries still dominated, accounting for nearly 69% of the market; and shipments of ternary materials batteries accounted for 27%. Specific to the passenger vehicle sector, the battery type is based on ternary materials, and the battery shipment volume reaches 1.93 Gwh. In the passenger vehicle area, it is mainly equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, which account for 84% of the battery capacity of pure electric buses. The ternary material battery only accounts for 12.9%.

However, with the improvement of the cruising range and other requirements for new energy passenger vehicles, many power battery companies are accelerating R&D on Sanyuan Lithium batteries, and the market application is expanding.

Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said that from the perspective of the application of power batteries in 2015, the scale will reach more than 20 billion yuan, and more than 70% will be lithium iron phosphate, in particular passenger cars account for a larger proportion and more passenger cars. To three yuan development. However, the new energy bus subsidy policy from 2016 to 2020 put forward the requirements of Ekg to encourage bus companies to transfer to Sanyuan Lithium.

Some industry research institutions predict that by 2017, the market share of ternary lithium batteries will reach 50%. Currently, the application of Sanyuan lithium batteries in commercial vehicles has been suspended, and some of the production capacity will be affected.

According to the development law of the power battery industry, a battery plant business needs to go through a passenger car development cycle of about 2 to 3 years from the new energy bus to a passenger car. The battery has already undergone pre-investment in production line equipment, talent reserve, etc. For the factory, if it suddenly turns, it will most likely cause its cash flow difficulties and the embarrassing situation of the frozen industry. The battery factory will even face the crisis of survival.

Misunderstanding

Is it safe to use a new energy bus with a ternary lithium battery?

According to relevant media reports, the reason for the suspension of the ternary system is that the thermal runaway temperature of the ternary lithium battery material is lower than that of LFP, which is likely to cause fire.

However, in view of the number of electric vehicle accidents that occurred in China since 2011, the accidents caused by lithium iron phosphate batteries are actually more than those caused by Sanyuan batteries. According to media reports, from 2011 to now, of 22 incidents of new energy vehicle fires in China, 20 fires were caused by lithium iron phosphate batteries, and 2 were caused by Sanyuan batteries.

In fact, the safety of new energy vehicles cannot be judged by a single material.

“Safety is also related to comprehensive factors such as batteries, modules, battery packs, vehicle design and control systems, and is particularly affected by the level of battery production technology and quality management.” According to industry insiders.

At an industry salon, Wang Qingsheng, a researcher at the Institute of Functional Materials and New Energy Technology of St. Petersburg State Technical University in Russia, pointed out that the insecurity of materials is not judged by its own physical indicators. How to control and use it is the most important in the process of use. .

Xiao Jian, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Advisors, also believes that safety standards are not only for batteries, but also for the safety of application safety design for battery groups. “The application safety of the power battery is a system project. In the case that it cannot guarantee that the thermal runaway of the battery does not occur completely, it must pass BMS (Battery Management System), TMS, fuse protection, thermal barrier, structural integration, etc. in the group design. Multiple security guarantees are set up. Therefore, we need to systematically attach importance to the safety of the battery rather than discussing the technical route and security in isolation."

In fact, for ternary lithium battery manufacturers, safety design and production play a crucial role in battery safety.

The Samsung Ring New Factory in the high-tech industrial development zone 21 kilometers away from Xi'an city center was officially launched in September last year. Samsung Ring New Energy can produce 40,000 batteries for pure electric vehicles each year, including local commercials such as Yutong and Futian. Cars and cars provide batteries. At present, the plant has achieved 100% automation.

According to relevant technical personnel, Samsung's new automotive battery, from the battery cell production stage to the module, battery pack, apply 3 to 4 stages of various safety devices.

From the material stage, a material having a relatively high heat resistance is used, a device that automatically discharges gas when the pressure in the battery increases, and a device that prevents the current in the battery from exceeding the normal range. In addition, safety is improved by using a circuit that forcibly cuts off the current when the battery is overcharged.

For modules and battery packs, heat-resistant materials and high-strength materials that can prevent the spread of impact and fire are designed and used, devices that can block heat are used between the battery cells, and techniques that can diagnose battery cell states in real time are applied.

In order to prevent the battery from entering various metallic foreign materials that may cause internal short circuit in the battery, the overall environment of the battery production process is strictly managed, and more than 2,000 strict quality management processes are implemented to produce safe batteries.

The ternary lithium battery produced in this way is subject to safety and credibility checks in a safety assessment building separately installed in a factory with more than 140 pings, and is tested for performance and safety in many aspects, including compression, penetration, drop, vibration, etc. Overcharge, short circuit, high heat, thermal shock, inertia, subversion and other 10 tests.

"In fact, the current domestic investment in battery manufacturing, technical threshold is low, resulting in the ternary system battery industry is uneven." There are power battery manufacturers responsible person so told reporters.

The above-mentioned sources believe that the safety of lithium batteries lies mainly in product design and engineering control. The biggest problem is the problem of consistency. "Accidents are often caused by extremely poor products."

According to commentators, if only the safety of new energy vehicles is considered, subsidies for all models including ternary systems and lithium iron phosphate batteries should be suspended instead of simply excluding the ternary models.

Where do you go from here?

Under "suspended subsidies," where are the battery manufacturers led by ternary batteries?

A person in charge of a large battery manufacturer told reporters that companies that have confidence in their own product safety, although not affecting their long-term investment due to short-term behavior, will face enormous pressure in the short term, and the product faces the risk of suspending or not selling. .

On the other hand, the gap in the Chinese battery market is huge. Nie Liang, the founder of Burtan Technology, said that the gap was too big when it was far from overcapacity. This has led to a situation in which companies cannot sell on the one hand, and on the other hand the demand cannot be satisfied.

More importantly, for companies that are too dependent on the survival of certain products, the sudden suspension of subsidies may very well risk the bankruptcy of the ternary lithium battery companies that have already been put into operation and plan to start production.

This will affect the future direction of the entire new energy industry. At present, domestic enterprises have entered the layout of ternary lithium batteries, and people in the industry are concerned that if they leave this matter for a long time, it will affect the development and progress of the entire new energy electric vehicle industry.

Ma Junfeng, senior director of Beijing Boston Battery Technology Co., Ltd., said that because of the lightweight development direction of electric vehicles, the Ekg indicator has decided to find a high energy density technology line. From now on, Sanyuan is a material that can be relatively mass-produced, has a high energy density, and has a low-temperature performance at a certain level.

In the face of this suspension of the ternary system, a person in charge of a large battery manufacturer suggested that he would like to study the new standard as soon as possible and evaluate and demonstrate all products according to the standard, and develop a new catalog accordingly.

In fact, China has officially implemented the battery safety-related industry standard (QC/T), and the national standard (GB/T) will also take effect in July of this year and will be certified by a third party agency authorized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Secretary-General Liu Yanlong believes that it is more appropriate to advance the system by improving the existing standards such as GB/T and strengthening management. Because it takes too long to establish a new standard (it takes at least two years before the case is finalized), the revision and improvement of existing standards (at least six months or so) can be completed more quickly.

In the case of Japan and South Korea’s leading technology, it is particularly urgent to promote the development of China’s ternary system. Song Huajie, deputy senior engineer of BAK Battery R&D Center, appealed that he hope to solve this problem as soon as possible and encourage Sanyuan Battery to develop healthily and steadily.

"The accumulation of technological development and the promotion of the market in the early stages are very critical. If we choose to suspend the use of ternary material lithium-ion batteries for commercial vehicles, we will become very passive once the technology of foreign ternary lithium batteries has been broken through." The founder of China Battery Network Yu Qingqing also expressed the same opinion.

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