Prospects for the Development of Equipment Industry in 2014

2013 is a crucial year for China's equipment industry to implement the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, which is the beginning and end of the “12th Five-Year Plan”. The domestic and international environment facing the development of the industry has been relatively improved, and the economic operation has shown a steady development trend. However, the complicated situation has not changed fundamentally. Looking forward to 2014, China's equipment industry will face both development opportunities and challenges. There will be favorable factors such as the acceleration of transformation and upgrading, the introduction of new rounds of reform policies and measures to release development dividends, and the domestic economy will tend to pick up. There are also weak international market demands and pressure on production costs. Increase such unfavorable factors.

I. Basic judgments on the situation in 2014

(1) Slow increase in production and export growth Since 2013, signs of world economic recovery have appeared, but the old risks and new disturbances are heavily overlapped, and the road to recovery is still bumpy. The domestic economy continued to stabilise and recover under the influence of a series of steady growth, structural adjustment, and reform policies. Due to the combined influence of domestic and foreign economies, China's equipment industry has seen some recovery in domestic demand and its growth rate has slowly increased. From January to September, the industrial added value of equipment manufacturing enterprises above the designated size increased by 9.9% year-on-year (up 9% year-on-year in the first quarter and 9.2% year-on-year in the second quarter), with a year-on-year increase of 12.8% in September. Due to factors such as the declining growth of fixed-equipment investment in the equipment industry and the continuing increase in operating costs, the equipment industry will maintain a “steady” trend throughout 2013 and the chances of a strong recovery will be small. In terms of exports, since January, the monthly growth rate of export delivery values ​​has shown a pick-up trend. It is expected that the export situation in the fourth quarter will still maintain the situation in the first three quarters, and the growth rate of export delivery values ​​will slowly increase.

It is expected that China's equipment industry will still face a more complex development situation in 2014. The macro economy will still be in a tightening phase after the “4 trillion” investment has brought about a period of high growth. It will take some time for the task of “de-capacity and de-bubble” to be completed, and domestic demand for equipment products will not increase substantially. However, due to the impact of the new round of reform policy measures on the release of development dividends, the equipment industry will sprout new momentum and growth points, such as rail transit equipment will enter a period of rapid growth. Under the influence of the above factors, China's equipment industry will continue to develop steadily in 2014, and the annual growth rate of industrial added value is expected to remain at around 13%.

(II) Speeding up the transformation and upgrading of the equipment industry In 2013, from the domestic environment, when the equipment industry faced many difficulties, such as sluggish domestic demand and sluggish export growth, various issues and contradictions covered by rapid growth have been exposed one after another. The extensive economic growth model driven by dividends, at the expense of the environment, and driven by investment, is unsustainable. The upgrading of demand and fierce market competition have brought newer, higher, and more urgent requirements to the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the entire industry. Therefore, more and more equipment manufacturing companies are strengthening their innovation and transformation and upgrading under the market forcing mechanism. Of the 80 national technology innovation demonstration companies to be identified in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced in September, equipment manufacturing companies accounted for half of the total, up 10 compared to last year.

It is expected that in 2014, in the context of implementing the “Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Plan” and the “Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan,” under the forceful mechanism of domestic and international demand upgrading, equipment and industrial enterprises will surely further increase production efficiency and reduce resources. Consumption. In view of the fact that the profit rate of the equipment industry is still declining, it has not really shaken off the predicament and entered the track of sound development. Therefore, the equipment industry needs to make more efforts in terms of structural adjustment and strong management. Moreover, under the guidance of the national policy, industries such as agricultural machinery and intelligent instrumentation that are closely related to consumption, informatization, and automation will develop at a faster rate than typical investment products. The direction of structural adjustment in the future of equipment industry will be more focused and adaptive. This change trend.

(III) Continuous Growth in Production and Sales of the Automotive Industry Since 2013, driven by the increase in urbanization and the income and consumption level of village and town residents, there have been strong sales in various degrees for passenger cars. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles reached 17.8544 million vehicles and 17.8158 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 13.6% and 13.5% year-on-year respectively. The annual growth rate of automobile production and sales is expected to reach 17% and 15%, respectively, along with the "Continuing the development of new energy vehicles. With the implementation of the Notice of Promotion and Application Work, sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase.

It is expected that China will implement the reform of the automobile industry access in 2014. If the “investment of foreign capital with domestic auto companies cannot exceed two, and the joint venture ratio cannot exceed 50%,” the investment access policy is open to the market. Big changes will occur. In terms of market demand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will usher in a relatively rapid growth in 2014, with the implementation of the central government's implementation of a new investment of 4 billion yuan in subsidies for new energy vehicles. At the same time, with the introduction of a series of government pollution control measures such as the “Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan” and the enhancement of public awareness of environmental protection, the small car market will usher in new opportunities for development. However, in 2014, the auto industry will also face increasing downward pressure on economic growth brought about by the adjustment of macroeconomic structure, as well as the adverse effects of government restrictions on purchases and restrictions. It is expected that the growth rate of China's automobile production and sales in 2014 will be basically the same as in 2013, with growth in production and sales. About 15%.

(D) Modest growth in production and sales of the machinery industry Since 2013, the machinery industry has continued to maintain steady development. The main economic indicators have grown moderately. From January to September, the growth rate of production and sales has risen by nearly 3 percentage points from the previous year. With a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points, profit rebounded faster than production and sales. The recovery of the entire industry was stronger than that of the nation's industries, showing that the industry's economy is slowly picking up. The industries related to the construction of Tiegongji, the development of new urbanization, and the construction of “smart cities”, such as elevators, urban rail equipment, smart grids, internet of things equipment, and agricultural machinery, have achieved rapid growth, and environmental protection equipment and intelligent equipment, such as Industrial robots and the 3D printing industry have become new growth points, but the output of typical investment products such as power generation equipment, machine tools and construction machinery continues to decline.

It is expected that in 2014, due to the improvement of the economic environment, the introduction of the "New Urbanization Plan" and the construction of "Smart City", the demand for machinery and equipment will continue to heat up. However, due to the impact of unfavorable factors such as the declining growth rate of fixed investment in the machinery industry and the continuing increase in operating costs, the machinery industry will continue to maintain a stable level of operation, and the chances of a strong recovery will be small. It is expected that the growth rate of production and sales will be around 14%. From the perspective of sub-industries, conventional power generation equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment, metallurgical and mining equipment, heavy machinery, general machine tools and other industries will continue to be in a weak demand; the demand for high-end machine tools, robots, and automatic production lines will rise; the construction machinery market will gradually rise and fall. Return to normal; the growth rate of agricultural machinery production and sales will gradually decline, but the large-scale high-end agricultural machinery products market will continue to produce prosperous.

(V) Shipbuilding industry operation is expected to bottom out. In 2013, under the influence of the weak global economic recovery and sluggish global shipping market, major operations indicators such as shipbuilding completion, hand-held orders, economic benefits, and exports all showed a downward trend. However, the significant increase in new orders for ships has signalled that the shipbuilding industry has bottomed out. In January-September, the country’s new ship orders took a total of 38.06 million dwt, an increase of 147.1% year-on-year. The fourth quarter will basically continue the trend of the first three quarters. It is expected that the annual shipbuilding completion volume will be around 45 million tons, and new orders for ships will also show an increase. The situation can reach 45-50 million tons.

It is expected that with the recovery of the world economy in 2014, the shipbuilding industry will usher in a new round of recovery based on the application of new technologies and the development of new ship types. With the introduction of a series of new standards and new norms of the International Maritime Organization, such as the eedi, the energy efficiency and emission requirements of ships have made higher demands. In the future, hull design and manufacturing will become a major trend in the direction of energy conservation and emission reduction. At home, the State Council’s recent “Ship Industries Accelerate Structural Adjustment and Promote Transformation and Upgrade Implementation Plan (2013-2015)” has identified seven major tasks, which will also greatly accelerate the shipbuilding industry’s resolution of excess capacity, adjust industrial structure, and accelerate transformation and upgrading. At the pace, some companies with weak R&D capabilities and slow transitions will be eliminated. At the same time, due to the development of marine engineering and other industries, the demand of the shipbuilding market will show structural changes. LNG ships, energy-saving and environment-friendly ships and special ships, ocean-going fishing boats, fishery vessels, and coastal and inland rivers will all have a certain scale. Demand. In summary, China's shipbuilding industry will bottom out in 2014, and the three major indicators will increase.

(VI) Rapid development of smart manufacturing equipment industry In 2013, economic restructuring and rising labor costs continued to drive the upgrading of the manufacturing industry, and the demand for smart manufacturing equipment was strong. A series of policies to promote the smart manufacturing equipment industry have been continuously introduced, such as the “Special Development of Intelligent Manufacturing Equipment” and “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Industrial Robots Industry”, etc. The cumulative effect of the implemented policies has been continuously increasing, stimulating industrial robots and high-end CNC machine tools. The rapid development of industries such as smart instrumentation and smart major equipment has taken the industrialization level of smart manufacturing equipment to a new level.

It is expected that in 2014, the new round of technological revolution represented by cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, etc. will accelerate its development, and the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading brought about by this will increase the demand for intelligent manufacturing equipment, and the industrial scale will increase. Showing a rapid expansion. From the perspective of the development of sub-sectors, with the increase in the number of special urban cities for the development of smart cities, equipment related to the construction of smart cities, such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and intelligent transportation devices, will usher in rapid development. In addition, the smart grid will complete the process of demonstration, technology unification, and planning and development in 2013, and will be fully promoted in 2014, and the smart grid equipment industry will also enter a rapid development channel.

Second, several issues that need attention

(1) The operating pressure of enterprises is still relatively large. First, due to the lack of market demand and the coexistence of homogenous competition, the phenomenon of blindly rushing orders has occurred from time to time. In 2014, the prices of equipment products will continue to trend down from 2012, and the current month’s price index remains. It will show a slight decline month by month. Second, as the economy picks up, purchase prices for fuel and power transmission will increase, and the procurement costs for the equipment industry will also rise slowly. Third, with the financial reforms and the banks’ attention to equipment and industrial enterprises, the financing environment of large companies will improve, and the financial expenses and interest expenses in them will fall back compared to 2013, but large and small SMEs will still face Difficulties in financing and high financing costs. Fourth, due to changes in the mode of economic growth, energy resources and environmental protection costs will continue to rise. Therefore, under the “double squeeze” of high equipment operating costs and falling product prices in China's equipment industry in 2014, the pressure on production and operation of enterprises remains high.

(II) The export situation is still hard to be optimistic. In 2013, under the background of the slowing world economic recovery, the “reindustrialization” strategy of western developed countries, and the increasingly fierce competition in the international market, China’s equipment industry has certain international comparative advantages, but it continues to Many years of rapid export growth have begun to trigger increasingly severe trade frictions and the trade environment is still deteriorating. Therefore, although the year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value in August and September for two months in a row was negative from the previous year, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.25% and 3.36% respectively, the accumulated volume in the first three quarters was still a year-on-year decrease of 1.55%, which was lower than the national foreign trade level ( 8%).

In 2014, as the path of international economic recovery is still tortuous, the overall international market demand is still weak, the competition between industries in various countries is becoming increasingly fierce, the trade friction situation is still severe, and the difficulties and risks faced by China's equipment industry product export are still more. However, under the background of a series of policies and measures to promote foreign trade development, China’s equipment industry will continue to improve its export trade facilitation. At the same time, many enterprises will take the initiative to transform and upgrade, and new export competition advantages will continue to emerge. China’s equipment industry is expected to Product exports may be slightly better than 2013.

(3) Insufficient technological input is still a major obstacle to innovation. In 2014, China’s equipment industry will still have the problem of insufficient technical input. This has become a major obstacle to China’s ability to independently develop core or key technologies. First, the input intensity of corporate R&D activities is still relatively low. In recent years, it has been hovering at a low level of around 2%. Compared with the level of 4%-5% of developed countries, there is still a large gap, and it cannot provide strong incentives for independent innovation of enterprises. Support. Second, investment in R&D is decentralized. Most R&D inputs are used to track imitation or the development of supporting technologies. There is a serious shortage of basic technology research investment for the industry. Third, the average number of scientific and technological personnel in equipment industry is still relatively low. The proportion of scientific and technological personnel in the equipment industry in the same period is relatively low, only about 3%, which is lower than the level of more than 5% in industrial countries.

(IV) The problem of structural overcapacity in some industries is prominent At present, the problem of overcapacity in the traditional industries of the domestic equipment industry remains prominent. First, the general-purpose low-end equipment is seriously oversupply, and the R&D and manufacturing capabilities of mid-to-high-end equipment have not yet been significantly improved. The supply capacity has been severely deficient. A large number of high-end equipment orders, including the domestic market, have been monopolized by foreign manufacturers. For example, the shipbuilding companies built by China's shipbuilding companies mostly rely on low value-added ship types such as tankers and bulk carriers, and the construction capacity of high-value-added ships such as large-scale container ships, LNG ships, and marine engineering equipment is insufficient. Second, the phenomenon of homogenous production of products is serious, and it is not suitable for the market demand for transformation and upgrading of downstream industries. In recent years, relying on the rapid growth of investment in construction machinery, power transmission and transformation equipment, wind power equipment, machine tools and other industries, with the needs of equipment industry users to accelerate the upgrade, compete with the price war can not meet the user's requirements for product precision, green, and intelligent And the requirement for companies to provide overall solution capabilities. It is estimated that in 2014, the structural overcapacity of China's low- and medium-end machine tools, wind power equipment, construction machinery, and ships will continue to exist, and the pressure for industrial restructuring will further increase.

Third, the countermeasures and recommendations to be taken (A) to enhance the technological level of enterprises, accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading First, through a variety of forms of concentrated funds, focusing on supporting major common equipment industry and key technologies, focusing on supporting the use of high-tech transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. The second is to support enterprises to connect with the international industrial chain and guide qualified companies to acquire and acquire well-known overseas companies, R&D institutions and marketing networks. The third is to promote the construction of a number of major projects, establish special fund support, provide green channels to guide the development of enterprises, and actively promote the healthy development of new industrial projects such as CNC machine tools, industrial robots, and 3D printing, and promote the improvement of the company's core capabilities through projects.

(2) Take measures to actively expand exports of equipment products First, improve the export tax rebate policy, appropriately increase the export tax rebate rate for some high-tech and high-value-added equipment products, and provide a strong foreign trade financial environment for equipment manufacturing export enterprises. The second is to encourage financial institutions to increase the supply of export credit funds, support domestic enterprises to undertake major projects abroad, and thus drive the export of complete sets of equipment and construction machinery. The third is to guide equipment manufacturing companies to adapt to changes in international market demand, adjust and optimize the structure of export products according to user needs, and gradually reduce the export of “two high and one capital” products. The fourth is to encourage enterprises to actively explore markets in the Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, India, Brazil, and Russia, and promote the diversification of export markets to compensate for lost shares in markets such as the EU and the United States.

(III) Constructing an innovation system to enhance independent innovation capability First, focusing on the weak links of key core technologies, basic technologies, and process technologies, giving full play to the state key laboratories, national engineering technology research centers, and industry key laboratories and engineering technology research centers. The role of innovation agencies, such as the adoption of effective measures to strengthen research and investment in industry common technology, and promote the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements. The second is to promote large-scale enterprises (groups) and large and medium-sized enterprises to establish key laboratories, technology centers, and R&D institutions, and to form a product technology development and innovation system with enterprises as the main body. In some key areas, key industries, key products, and key processes At the same time, improve the ability of independent innovation of enterprises. The third is to establish a diversified, multi-channel, multi-level investment and financing system for independent innovation and basic capacity building, to give play to the guiding role of financial investment, and to explore the establishment of government funds to guide the investment mechanism of social capital.

(D) Vigorously promote energy conservation, emission reduction, green manufacturing, etc. First, energy conservation, emission reduction, green manufacturing, and all basic work are the focus of transformation and upgrading. The second is to continue to strengthen the revision of new products, energy-saving and high-efficiency products, improve the technology, transform backward equipment, and promote the use of energy-saving and emission reduction equipment. The third is to accelerate the research and promotion of high-efficiency energy-saving technologies and equipment, develop major equipment represented by large-scale and high-efficiency power generation equipment, and develop and promote high-volume general-purpose energy-saving electromechanical products represented by high-efficiency motors and energy-saving transformers, and promote and develop Waste heat, residual pressure and other energy recovery devices represented by dedicated energy-saving devices.