High sales volume is difficult to cover half of capital dealers

Old cars eliminated the last train effect of the renewed subsidy policy, resulting in the concentration of replacement consumption; the national IV significantly reduced the price to attract consumers to buy... In the second half of the year, many factors stimulated the sales of the Beijing auto market to continue to rise, especially at the end of the year. New car sales are expected to reach this year. 600,000 vehicles. However, some experts say that the dealer’s loss ratio has reached as high as 50% this year. The reason is that excessive price competition has led to a serious decline in economic efficiency. In the interview, most dealers expressed an unoptimistic attitude toward the market conditions of the next year, and generally said that it would be difficult to withstand a large-scale price war.

In the face of unpredictable high growth at the beginning of the year, experts generally stated that this was the result of the combined effects of many special factors. Looking forward to next year, most people think that this year's purchase and sales boom is difficult to reproduce, and total sales are difficult to exceed.

Many factors push up sales
According to the latest statistics, in the first 11 months of this year, 527,500 new cars were sold in Beijing, an increase of 46.5% over the previous year's 360,000.

In the view of Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of the Beijing Asian Games Village Auto Market (hereinafter referred to as “Asia City”), replacement subsidies have contributed to the high growth of the Beijing auto market this year. “This year's Beijing auto market has a clear policy-oriented role. The government’s encouragement, coupled with subsidies from auto manufacturers, has pushed the replacement of used vehicles to a new level.” Yan Jinghui said that the number of new car sales in Beijing’s auto market this year has exceeded 560,000 units, which means no suspense, which means More than 320,000 vehicles were replaced by 240,000 units sold via a swoosh.

Many experts in the automotive industry, such as Su Hui, also affirmed the important role of replacement subsidies for the sales of the Beijing auto market. Su Hui also predicted that the sales volume of the Beijing auto market this year is expected to reach or reach 600,000 vehicles. “Older car renewal policies have great consumer incentives. Near the end of the year, there is still no news of whether the policy will continue next year. Therefore, car owners have focused on updating vehicles and have effectively driven new car sales,” said Su Hui.

Indeed, replacement subsidies effectively stimulated the sales of new cars in the Beijing auto market. According to Fang Li, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, Beijing has already eliminated 330,000 old motor vehicles and over-achieved the goal of eliminating 150,000 old vehicles in the year ahead of schedule.

In addition, experts also pointed out that the sharp price cuts and promotions of the China IV models in previous months have also attracted many consumers to buy cars in advance. In the interview, the feedback from dealers confirmed what the experts said. “Some consumers did not originally plan to buy a car, but the margin of tens of thousands of dollars has attracted them to advance.” According to a sales manager of a 4S joint venture brand, the store has more than 1 in the two months of the clearance. The customer of /3 decided to purchase a car because of the high discount.

At the same time, some consumers are rushing to replace their cars when they have just landed in the Beijing auto market. This is because they worry that old cars in their hands will become less valuable, and this is directly related to the expiration of replacement subsidies.

Thirty percent reduction in the amount of replacement next year
However, it is precisely because of the huge sales growth driven by the policies. It is difficult to predict the trend of the Beijing auto market next year. The current old-fashioned motor vehicle replacement retroactive subsidy policy, which has contributed tremendously to the Beijing auto market, is about to expire. Su Hui said that there is an ongoing debate among the industry’s public opinion about whether the new and old car replacement policies can continue for the next year, leading to an uncertain situation.

“According to the regulations, the replacement subsidies for old vehicles will expire on December 31. Whether the old policy will continue or not, there is no news.” Yan Jinghui worried that once the policy is cancelled, it will affect the rapid reduction of TM buyers. “The new car will be replaced next year. The sales generated will be reduced by at least 30%, and the Beijing market may even return to an annual sales volume of 400,000 units." Yan Jinghui said.

According to a survey from the Asian city, next year, the new and old car market in Beijing will show a relatively stable trading trend, and the year-on-year increase will fall back to around 5%. During the interview, experts generally agreed that the Beijing auto market will maintain a low growth rate of around 5% next year. Su Hui believes that Beijing's auto sales will be too high this year. There will be an overall regulation and control policy next year. "This year's situation was not expected by the relevant departments. This is equivalent to not restricting the excessive growth of new cars. Therefore, it will definitely be a policy next year. Limit it." Su Hui said.

However, there are also many voices in the industry that the old and new car replacement and replacement subsidies policy should continue in the next year, which will stabilize the growth of the Beijing auto market. It has been revealed that Beijing has been discussing the plan to further promote the elimination of old and new motor vehicles. “Beijing’s relevant departments had organized market participants to discuss next year’s plans in the middle of the year, but there have been no specific implementation rules announced.” One person who participated in the discussion told reporters in this way.

It is reported that the Beijing Municipal Government has recently researched the “Promote the Dismantling and Renovation of Old Motor Vehicles in the City (2013-2014)”, and pointed out that it is imperative for old motor vehicles to be eliminated and renewed. Therefore, many people in the industry believe that at present, the current elimination of the old car replacement subsidies may be canceled, but there will be new incentives introduced, and combined with the replacement of new energy vehicles, increase subsidies for end-of-life vehicles .

The price change is expected to end

Uncertain policy winds next year will stimulate the concentration of purchasing power at the end of the year. Businesses will also step up sales efforts and seize the opportunity to compete for customers. However, after the reporter visited the dealership, he found that the high sales are not high profits. On the contrary, the days of most 4S shops are not too good.

Su Hui told reporters that the current loss of dealers has reached as high as 50%, due to excessive price competition leading to serious decline in economic efficiency.

In fact, according to the current inventory situation, Beijing dealers do not need to cut meat sales. It is reported that the boom in car purchases at the end of the year has made distributors’ inventory work quite smooth. According to the statistics of the Asian city, dealer stock time was significantly shortened in December. Compared with November, the proportion of dealers whose vehicle inventory time exceeded one month had dropped from 34.38% to 22.86%, a decrease of 11.52 percentage points. In addition, the increase in phased demand has caused a shortage of hot-selling models, with the German cars being the most obvious. At the same time, they also include brands such as self-owned brands. At present, almost all of them are short of cars.

Whether completed or not, this year's overall situation has almost been set. Coupled with the reduction in inventory pressure, dealers are more likely to hope that the market will develop steadily next year and will no longer trade at the expense of profits. “I hope that manufacturers can reduce the pressure on the library next year, although reasonable promotions must have, but the continuous losses have made many shops no longer able to withstand a large-scale price war.” A 4S shop manager said the vast majority of dealers The voice of the heart.