Kline & Co company at the ICIS Asian Base Oil and Lubricants Conference held in July 2010 pointed out that the lube market is recovering, but the post-crisis world will still be more difficult. The development trend is that Type II oil will become the new Type I oil, and several large manufacturers will produce Type III oil as the primary product, and Type III Oil will become the selected filling product for automobile manufacturers. Kline & Co expects that in the recent economic recession, global lubricant demand has dropped to less than 34 million tons/year, and it will not return to 2007 levels until 2013, at about 40 million tons/year. However, Europe’s recovery is relatively slow and there is the greatest uncertainty in the region. The North American lubricants market is expected to stagnate or decline. Asia is a bright spot for development. China and India have introduced stimulus measures. The analysis pointed out that the economic recession has affected car production to different degrees in different regions. Asian automobile production remained stable or increased, while European and American production declined. In 2008, China had become the world's largest automobile producer, and now it has produced more than the North American Free Trade Organization. Type I oils have shifted from mainstream products to selected products for metal working fluids, process oils, and bright oil applications, and these applications have accelerated due to the economic downturn. Most of the reduction in the supply of Type I oil will occur in Western Europe, but supply reductions have also occurred in other regions. On the contrary, due to better performance, Type II and Type II+ oils have the appropriate development space. Group II base oils are now widely produced and it is expected that there will be more supply in the next 10 years. The major producers of Group II base oils will include Chevron Corporation and its GS Caltex joint venture (which is expected to have a total oil capacity of 65,000 barrels per day by 2019), Motiva (40,000 barrels per day), ExxonMobil (3.3 million barrels per day), Excel Paralubes (2.2 million barrels per day) and S-Oil (20,000 barrels per day). 15 other second-tier suppliers will each have a capacity of about 3,000 to 13,000 barrels per day. This extensive resource will help replace Group I oils. By 2019, a few large manufacturers will dominate the Class III oil market and will account for more than 85% of global III oil supply. They are: South Korea's SK Lubricating Oil Company (plus its joint venture partners, the capacity of Class III oil will reach nearly 50,000 barrels per day by 2019) and S-Oil (20,000 barrels per day), Shell Qatar Gas Synthetic Oil Installation (30,000 barrels per day) and Nast and its partners (2.2 million barrels per day). Asia has Class III oil resources that will be selected by automakers as filling products, even though it may not be technically necessary. In the next 10 years, based on the current development of 5W for the steering of motor oil, the demand for Type III oil will be nearly doubled, from the current slightly higher than 30,000 barrels/day to more than 60,000 barrels/day. However, the supply of Class III oil will far exceed demand, and if all the planned installations are put into operation, there will be a surplus of a large number of Class III oils. Type III oil producers are concentrated in Asia. Polish Brass Die Casting,Die Casting,Other Castings Stamping Part Co., Ltd. , http://www.nscnc-machining.com